The abrogation of Article 370 in Kashmir will be the BJP’s most emotive poll plank in the Assembly polls in Maharashtra and Haryana, besides 64 byelections to vacant Assembly seats nationwide. The denial of human rights like freedom of movement and Internet access in the Valley may not worry the BJP too much as the issue has huge strategic significance in winning elections. The BJP is already on a strong wicket after victory in the April-May general election. Unlike in 2018, when the Assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh were seen as a referendum on the BJP-led NDA’s performance and the shocking losses provided a triple whammy, the BJP is better placed to consolidate power now, not least because Kashmir adds to the nationalist narrative tactically promoted by rulers who had their mandate renewed for five years.
It will be interesting to see if the BJP and its chief ally Shiv Sena in Maharashtra will, on the strength of their hold on the electorate, be able to ride out the economic slowdown, including in rural consumption and in agriculture, affected by seasonal droughts and floods. The main Congress-NCP Opposition are in disarray, with many leaders deserting these parties, while the Congress is emerging from a factional fight in Haryana. These constitute stronger signals for the rulers, but the voice of the people should never be taken for granted. The BJP may face a greater challenge in the byelections to be held in Karnataka in 15 of 17 seats that became vacant as MLAs resigned in the toppling drama that brought down the JD(S)-Congress government in July. The Supreme Court will soon hear the pleas of legislators who have been disqualified. The byelections in many states are not bereft of significance, much of it owed to the charm of democracy.
