While campaigning for the White House, Donald Trump had backed a complete force withdrawal from Afghanistan, but on Monday, as President, Mr Trump said life changes when you enter office. Leaving Afghanistan (without a clear and reliable polity in place), he spelt out, risked providing a free play-area to extremists and terrorists who could threaten the US. On this, he is probably right.
Afghans don’t yet have a capable state system to tackle terrorists and extremists bankrolled and militarily supported by next-door neighbour Pakistan and some others. It is in confronting this key aspect of the problem that the just-announced Trump Doctrine, touted as a policy toward South Asia and not just Afghanistan, lacks any new conceptual thinking. Can it achieve its aim of winning in Afghanistan after being in the country 16 long years, in America’s longest war?
That’s doubtful. Can it, by raising US force levels by around 4,000 to about 13,000, that is being envisaged, sufficiently aid the brave Afghan Army to keep Pakistan at bay working through the Taliban proxy? This too is doubtful. From its own Kashmir experience, India knows what havoc proxy wars can create, and the Afghan state is less than one-tenth as capable. Right through the George W. Bush and Barack Obama administrations, specially the latter, the US falsely blamed Afghans — their corruption and ethnic squabbles — for Washington’s failure to finish the Taliban insurgency for good.
America should have known better than to blame the victim, and squarely blamed Pakistan instead and cut off military aid to it for fighting terrorism while Islamabad was doing exactly the opposite. This may have brought Islamabad to its senses — then. Now, that looks unlikely. China has stepped in to prop up the Pakistan military in a major way to keep India off-balance regionally, and build its own massive infrastructure and military facilities in Pakistan. Diplomatically, Russia is also fully on Pakistan’s side against America, and is aiding the Taliban as a hedge against ISIS. In his Afghanistan speech, Mr Trump gave Pakistan a mouthful. He said: “No partnership can survive a country’s harbouring of militants and terrorists who target US service members and officials.” Pakistan was also accused of harbouring terrorists. All of this has been said before.
Still, India seems excited and isn’t checking the record against performance. President Trump praised India’s economic and development assistance to Afghanistan and openly urged it do more. This positive open reference to India is new. But he got it wrong in saying India should do more as it earns billions of dollars in trade from the US. That’s a wholly different issue. India didn’t enter Afghanistan after seeking Washington’s permission, and will mind its own Afghan policy. The US should be told that.
