The recent Id-ul-Fitr ceasefire in Afghanistan, unlike the Ramzan ceasefire in Kashmir, which saw a spurt in terrorist violence, has raised some hope of change in the political contours in Afghanistan. If a new direction emerges, can India be a part of the effort? Some 30,000 Taliban fighters, many of them armed, mingled with government troops and shared the joys of Id. Many attended receptions by officials in Kabul and in other cities before returning to their fighting stations. But some never went back, raising fears of future attacks.
Days after Id, Taliban attacks were resumed. Still, the Ashraf Ghani government, encouraged by the show of festival bonhomie, has offered dialogue. The Taliban continue to refuse talks with the government in Kabul, which they regard as America’s “puppet”. They have no hesitation talking directly to the US, however. Since the Pakistan-backed Taliban view themselves as the real government, the Islamic Emirate, talks with Washington carries the sense of political equivalence.
US secretary of state Mike Pompeo has indicated that the Trump administration is ready to encourage talks with the Taliban. This suits Pakistan and long-term ally China. Since the Trump regime has declared New Delhi to be an ally in the Afghanistan context, can India diplomatically try to play a role within the matrix of talks even if Islamabad tries to keep it out?
This will require complex footwork, given India’s past stance. But such a move can be beneficial for this country’s future relations with Afghanistan, given Taliban’s salience. India could advocate the coming together of the US and Russia with Kabul’s leading neighbours to prepare a broad framework for national reconciliation in Afghanistan and for regional peace. In such a venture, all parties, including the Taliban, could be ranged against ISIS, now operating freely in Afghanistan.
