Congress president Sonia Gandhi is intent on staying firmly on the path she has chosen. The number of people writing the epitaph of her party, founded in 1885, may be growing, particularly after the recent Assembly election results, but the head of the family is convinced that staying the course itself may change everything again in the first-past-the-post electoral system, that has thrown up many surprises in the past.
Her repudiation of the calls for “surgery” or a brand new leader and her assertion that the Congress’ first principles alone would bring back the halcyon days are clear indications that the status quo will prevail, with the “first family” continuing to lead it. It’s been 27 years since the dynasty’s last Prime Minister was unseated. It was on the 25th anniversary of her husband Rajiv’s death that Sonia felt emboldened to say while circumstances may change, the party’s moorings remain and it’s really up to seniors to stay and play the game by the Nehru-Gandhis’ rules or quit.
The circumstances have undoubtedly changed, as seen in India’s 2016 political map, so different from that of 2014 or earlier. While national parties like the BJP (in power in nine states, and a junior role in J&K) and Congress (ruling in six states, plus Puducherry) can claim about 55 per cent of India in land mass, the regional parties hold sway in the rest of India.
The political balance is such a scenario, where national parties lead alliances in Parliament, and regional parties, with strong local leaders, rule the Assemblies, can’t be ruled out in 2019. It’s no stretch of imagination to believe Mrs Gandhi could be banking on her party being the only one in a position to challenge the BJP as a national alliance leader. Politicians on the other side of the divide, including BJP’s Arun Jaitley, know this too.
Her gamble on her son — the presumptive heir set to ascend the throne soon — being the most suitable to carry the mantle may be viewed derisively by pundits. Risky as this path seems, it’s not bereft of logic in a land with very few having a clear claim to national leadership status.
Opportunistic as the Congress’ alliance politics is seen to be — imagine joining hands with the DMK in Tamil Nadu and Puducherry after the party was known to be instrumental in the 2G scam, which brought the UPA crashing down in 2014 — it is still crucial to how the elections may pan out in Punjab and Uttar Pradesh next year and then in the 2019 general election. Till then it is certain to be business as usual at the Congress party’s headquarters in New Delhi’s Akbar Road.
