External affairs minister S. Jaishankar’s declaration that India expected to eventually have “physical jurisdiction” over Pakistan-occupied Kashmir one day is mere brinksmanship. It must be seen in the light of other developments since August 5, the day home minister Amit Shah announced the demise of Jammu and Kashmir's autonomy. Questions remain over the constitutionality of hollowing out Article 370 to effect its abrogation.
Even if the media and the Supreme Court have exhibited a willingness to accept the government’s move — more momentous than even the November 2016 demonetisation — the international community may not be ready to move on. This is why the minister, while addressing the media on Tuesday, made it a point to assert that at the coming United Nations General Assembly session, the primary question for discussion is not Article 370 but cross-border terrorism.
His assertions reveal the government’s anxiety over what may transpire at the UN, despite the bonhomie shown by US President Donald Trump to Prime Minister Narendra Modi — he’s even turning up for the “Howdy, Modi” event in Houston on Sunday. Mr Trump is unpredictable, and his primary objective remains getting his troops out of Afghanistan; the failure of a deal with the Taliban led his sacking of national security adviser John Bolton.
Pakistan’s PM Imran Khan will be in New York, and his last visit to the US was, from all accounts, a roaring success. Members of the US Congress, who were mentioned dismissively by Mr Jaishankar for their concern about the lockdown in the Valley, now in its seventh week, will no doubt during Mr Modi’s visit raise questions on human rights abuses; in this, the recent booking under the Public Safety Act of 81-year-old kidney-transplant recipient Farooq Abdullah doesn’t help India’s cause.
Though the US and the UN responded tepidly to Imran’s exhortations on human rights curtailment in Kashmir and New Delhi’s “aggressive posturing” on PoK, he is unlikely to give up his campaign. As the lockdown drags on and abuses increase, they will become more of an issue in the West, and Pakistan might find itself getting more traction by the summer of 2020. It’s not just Europeans but also the Americans whose interest may increase, as their election campaign begins its final stage. But even if the West doesn’t respond, for whatever reason, Pakistan can’t give up its campaign: the dispute with India is its raison d’etre as a nation.
India can thus expect diplomatic turbulence starting from the UNGA session next week through the next few months, if not the next couple of years. Before Pakistan can indulge in brinksmanship, India is pre-empting its neighbour with a brinksmanship of its own, by calling for an eventual “physical jurisdiction” of PoK. The Pakistani media openly discusses its fear that India will insist any future bilateral dialogue not be about Kashmir but about PoK. New Delhi would prefer such a strategy over having to answer the uncomfortable and unanswerable questions about Kashmir and the Kashmiris.
