The no-confidence motion against the Narendra Modi government, that is likely to be taken up in the Lok Sabha on Monday, is not expected to succeed. But it does underscore the growing isolation of the Modi government from its nearest allies. The difficulties that the government faces in Parliament are likely to grow. The Telugu Desam — whose notice submitted on Friday is likely to be debated if it can attract the endorsement of a minimum of the 50 MPs required — is not the BJP’s oldest ally, but it is hard to think of a keener associate of the saffron fold for two decades. Yet, it announced first thing on Friday morning that it was withdrawing from the BJP-led NDA coalition. Soon thereafter, it gave a notice of no confidence in the government of Mr Modi. Nine days earlier, the TD had withdrawn its representatives from the Union council of ministers, citing the Centre’s refusal to honour its pledge to give Andhra Pradesh a special category status.
On the issue of the no-confidence motion, the TD’s hand may have been forced by the YSR Congress, which had threatened to withdraw its MPs from Parliament on the question of a financial package for the state. The YSRC also gave notice of a no-confidence motion. While the state’s political dynamics led TD chief N. Chandrababu Naidu to take the “tough decision” of moving a no-confidence motion, it is the wider impact on the political environment in the country that is likely to concern the BJP. Mr Naidu made it a point to flag the obvious in his lengthy speech to his state Assembly on Friday — that the recent byelection results had shown that the stock of the Prime Minister and his party was down. As a part of the BJP’s diplomacy to other NDA allies preceding the no-confidence vote, Maharashtra CM Devendra Fadnavis got in touch with the Shiv Sena right away. It will be interesting to see if the Sena and BJP’s minor allies in various states vote with the government on the no-confidence motion. Equally interesting will be the stance of non-NDA parties like the AIADMK and TRS, which have been supportive of the BJP for political reasons. On the whole, regional parties are likely to be guided by their immediate concerns on the issue of the no-confidence motion. The Congress, Trinamul Congress, the Left parties and the AIMIM have announced their support for the no-trust motion, which hurts the government’s prestige.
