British PM Theresa May emerged triumphant from a Conservative Party trust vote, but the Brexit problem isn’t over. The 200-117 Tory vote isn’t a confidence booster. Ms May and the UK remain in a hard place on Brexit as Parliament is unlikely to accept the deal Ms May negotiated with the EU, which is why she postponed the Commons vote. As long as the Irish border backstop remains (the border between the Republic of Ireland and UK’s Northern Ireland is a soft one, with free movement of people and goods), the Brexit problem may be unsolvable. That takes us back to the casual manner in which a referendum was agreed upon by David Cameron. Brexiters had only a four per cent lead in numbers at a time when all the implications of a divorce weren’t known.
Ms May will attempt to further pursue reopening of EU negotiations, but all the vibes indicate Europe will not bend to accommodate, even though a UK no-deal Brexit may prove catastrophic for both sides. There is a EU trade surplus with the UK to consider, and a $39-billion settlement sop for EU and disorder for UK, by which essential goods may stop coming from Europe, so there could be food shortages too. The scary scenario for both sides leaves Europe more in turmoil after the problems facing France’s Emmanuel Macron and a weakened Angela Merkel leaving the continent with no strong leader capable of showing the way, as populism rears its head in Hungary and Poland. Ms May also faces the prospect of a Labour Party no-confidence motion, which might however come only after Ms May’s stock falls further as she grapples with Brexit.
