When the US presidential race began, Donald Trump, who was then not the Republican candidate, was treated as a bit of a joke. But soon enough he stormed the Republican establishment and forced it to adopt him as its candidate to fight Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. And now, suddenly, many are saying that Mr Trump has narrowed the gap against his rival. Some pollsters, those without a clear track record, indicated the rivals were nearly level. However, the Reuters IPSOS poll too indicated the margin was now really thin. Until August, Ms Clinton had led her competitor by a healthy nine percentage points. No one has offered a cogent explanation for the change. Hairs are being split on whether it’s “registered voters” who are being considered or “likely voters”. Also, the result has turned on whether a field of two was being considered, or of four — including Libertarian and Green candidates.
What has been clear from the beginning, however, is that if only white people voted and the election was held now, Mr Trump might be a shoo-in. He leads Ms Clinton 45-40 among white voters, while Ms Clinton leads 69-17 among non-whites. But there are imponderables. Many Republican voters say they would vote for Ms Clinton as Mr Trump is a misogynist. On the other hand, young blacks may not necessarily go and vote for Ms Clinton, who is said to suffer from a trust deficit.
