The announcement of Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Manipur and Goa by the Election Commission on Wednesday has caused not a little political confusion. This is due to the fact that state elections will be held in the season of the Union Budget for the present year. As matters stand, finance minister Arun Jaitley will read his Budget speech in Parliament on February 1, just days before the voting begins. It is hard to imagine that the elections will remain potentially unaffected.
The way things are going, it is plain to see that the very idea of a model code of conduct — under which governments are supposed to make no announcements of any kind that can be construed as wooing the public — stands scuttled. This is a shame and undoes the notion of a neutral election being conducted on a level playing field. In the present situation, the government can woo the public through attractive Budget pronouncements that may act as a balm on the wound caused by demonetisation.
Budgets, even when they are hard on certain aspects, are an instrument in the government’s hands to win over voters. The Narendra Modi government is in a particularly delicate phase of its five-year tenure: when the inflection point has been reached and a government’s popularity is beginning to head south. Only recently the Prime Minister strongly hinted that taxes could be reduced in order to boost the economy, that is flagging due to demonetisation. Mr Jaitley did not lag behind in seconding the idea.
Tax reductions will be for the whole country, not specific states. If such measures are announced, the states going to the polls will not be excluded from their application. As such, it is less than a clever technicality to suggest that having the Union Budget and state polls at the same time should not be a matter of concern, provided nothing specific for the poll-bound states is announced. This is the meaning of Mr Jaitley’s observation that “there is no requirement for a delay”. The Opposition parties have, of course, been sharply critical of the idea of Budget proposals being articulated literally on the eve of polling.
It is evident that the EC failed to anticipate the piquant situation that has arisen. It could have brought in the parties for a conversation when the government was tossing up the idea of changing the old pattern to have the Budget passed earlier. In fact, in retrospect, it appears that an early Budget might have been calculated to potentially influence poll outcomes. The Opposition parties too have failed to read the wind. All in all, it is a bad day for the spirit of democracy.
