The geopolitical signals were always clear. China is on Pakistan’s side as ever. It’s the announcement’s timing that adds a chilling dimension to China blocking Xiabuqu River, a tributary of the Yarlung Zangbo (Brahmaputra), to facilitate Lalho, a major hydroelectric project that was under construction since 2014. The “surgical strikes” after the Uri attack clearly prompted China to act this way. India cannot but proceed cautiously and first study what effects Chinese projects on Yarlung Zangbo will have on the flow of water into India and Bangladesh. India should also rethink what to do on the Indus treaty with Pakistan. There is no question of acting with reckless abandon in matters regarding water, a source of tension in national and international relations.
In the absence of a treaty on the Brahmaputra, India and China have only a 2013 MoU on data-sharing. The veracity of data from an upper riparian river is always suspect in the eyes of those at the lower end. While international forums invariably struggle with dispute resolution, the picture over international waters is always mixed, with the best results coming from cooperation rather than arbitration. India has an advantage in any potential standoff, as the Brahmaputra can’t be seen in isolation as India is the upper riparian state in the six rivers of the Indus river system. Clearly, the way forward is through negotiation and cooperation rather than conflict. Since disputes have always dominated the international water arena, it would be best for India to go forward and address the water issue confidently with China and Pakistan.
