In recent months, a questionmark has been raised over the BJP-led NDA, the country’s ruling alliance, staying intact in the next Lok Sabha polls due by May 2019. The Telugu Desam has walked out. The Shiv Sena, the BJP’s oldest ally, has declared it will not partner the saffron party in the next election. In Bihar, doubts are being raised on whether the JD(U), which left the NDA only to return to it a year ago, is in two minds on remaining with the BJP. In UP, the BJP’s smaller allies are said to be frustrated with their larger-than-life partner. The BJP is evidently uncomfortable, given the uncertainty of the state of its alliances in the largest states of the Hindi belt, which handsomely filled its coffers in 2014. However, as for the BJP’s opponents, there’s no crystallisation yet of the shape of things to come, although there is hope. But there could be many a slip between the cup and the lip.
The Congress is the national party of the “secular” side, but it won so few seats in 2014 that its national status isn’t quite justified in the eyes of many who might ally with it. Despite that, if the former ruling party can pull off wins in Assembly elections, and wrest power from the BJP in key northern states in December, its chances of being the leader of the “secular” grouping are expected to brighten. The leadership issue is also a matter of debate at this stage. Many regional secular parties have experienced top leaders. Some nurse prime ministerial ambitions and that, at one level, places them at odds with the Congress, which would like to see its president Rahul Gandhi as the next PM if parties opposed to the BJP have greater numbers.
Given the state of perception of the Narendra Modi government, there could be doubts about Mr Modi being the next BJP leader if the BJP returns as the largest single party, but without a clear majority. This issue is likely to create some confusion in saffron ranks. It’s clear enough on the evidence of recent decades that no single party can hope to bag a Lok Sabha majority on its own if it doesn’t go into the poll battle without pre-arranged allies. The BJP eventually did win 50 per cent of Lok Sabha seats in 2014, the first time a party had done this in 25 years, but it’s far from certain such a result would have happened if it didn’t have a clutch of allies. Therefore, on both sides of the political-ideological divide, efforts are now on to firm up alliances and weaken the prospect of the other side doing the same. Poaching deals are being spoken of — some not quite kosher. Loud propaganda noises will be heard as preparations move apace for the 2019 battle.
