Will Delhi Dare Call Out America On Iran At Brics?

How does one assess the outcome or implications of three major (two multinational and one bilateral) Summits happening in the same month over 25 days? Yes, that is precisely the scenario today. No sooner did the 25th anniversary Summit of the 10-nation SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation) get over on September 1 is India hosting the 10-member 18th Brics Summit. The Sino-American Summit on September 24 is the last event.

The SCO Summit spanning August 31 to September 1 ended with a joint declaration condemning military strikes by the US and Israel on Iran and calling for a just settlement of the Palestine question. Committing to open, fair multilateral trading and agreeing to implement energy and economic development strategies through 2030, it emphasised upon the SCO’s non-military nature to reject bloc-based confrontation. The Bishkek Summit surely saw a satisfactory, though not perfect, conclusion. The performance of the 10 Euro-Asian states spanning across the Great “Heartland” of Halford Mackinder did look steady and inspiring confidence.

In many ways, the Kyrgyzstan-hosted Summit stood out as a successful land-power experiment of our times. Despite many disagreements, the joint declaration signed by all 10 “Heartland” participants counts as an example of diplomacy, the focus being on “dialogue, discussion and agreement, however limited” in stark contrast to what the President of the US (POTUS), Donald Trump, is imposing on his cronies in the West, both business and political. It is his very own special brand of howling, abusing, threatening, insulting monopoly.

India, however, did well to concur to condemn joint Israeli-American military strikes on Iran and opposed the Belt and Road Initiative, too, neither of which will please POTUS or the Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Close on the heels of the Bishkek SCO, it is hosting the 18th Brics Summit from September 11 to September 13. Known world over for efficient handling and warm hospitality to participants of international conferences, it has been respected, since inception (1947), for being an independent and fair nation, taking neutral and principled stand on key issues in world politics. Even at the height of the Cold War and several years into the post-Cold War era, too, New Delhi steered clear of Big Boy rivalry notwithstanding the antics of Pakistan and China, its two main irritants.

Nevertheless, politics has changed since those times. India’s dogged opposition to chronic bloodshed in Palestine is now more nuanced. New Delhi today faces strong headwinds, different from the good old days when its head of government was revered across South Asia through good and bad times. In retrospect, the bilateral oil transactions conducted of one’s own volition and closeness to Moscow evinced by the landmark “Treaty of Friendship” of August 9, 1971, appear to be in the distant past. India, the host of the 18th Brics Summit of Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran and UAE today is openly “with US and Israel” for reasons that are well known.

The external scenario for India today does not appear rosy. With his characteristic unpredictability and verbal invectives, Mr Trump has created unprecedented unease for the best of his time-tested partners like Canada and Nato members. Hence, the real problem for India is likely to arrive in the concluding day of the Summit at the time of the joint declaration, when the war in Iran must be mentioned.

At the SCO Summit in Bishkek, it had gone along with the rest of the nine member states to condemn the US-Israel military strikes on Tehran. Today, Iran is at war with Tel Aviv and Washington who are both India’s friends.

On Russia, Mr Trump has suddenly been unusually accommodative and appreciative owing to potential mega-contracts keeping in view his family business as well as, hopefully, the future of the American economy. On China, too, he will soft-pedal owing to the proximity of the Sino-US Summit. Consequently, India emerges as the softest target for him. As things stand, the delay in finalising the India-US trade deal has already irked him no end. India has also been showing signs of shaking off other demands of the US. That said, Sunday’s events will undoubtedly call for a tightrope walk, coming as it does between two shows of SCO and Beijing-Washington tango.

Now to the Sino-US Summit of September 24. There is no doubt that Beijing-Washington is the most consequential bilateral of the 21st century owing to the geoeconomics and repercussions thereof. Aside the set agenda of trade, tariff, tech, commerce, investment, banking, “opening of market”, buying more American goods and agriculture product and artificial intelligence, what needs to be kept in mind is the Financial Times, London, report of August 26: “Beijing threatens to strike back if US sanctions on Iran hit China’s interests”. If Chinese companies are included in any expansion of Mr Trump’s new secondary sanctions to Iran, “Beijing will retaliate”. Obviously, US treasury secretary Scott Bessent has to think carefully because military power, overseas military bases and number of battleships floating in the water bodies across globe will play a role.

Clearly, what the US ambassador in India today is doing with his personal “I like him and them” tactics to create avoidable political turmoil inside the country cannot be done by even the most powerful head of state where China is concerned.

It’s thus clear there could very well be an Indian dilemma on the concluding day of 18th Brics Summit. Yet the American shadow on India’s sovereignty is all too frequent.

Despite firm and prominent presence of an over-five-million-strong Indian diaspora in every sector of American activity from Ivy League universities to technology, commerce and politics, the governments of the two countries are not enjoying rock-steady relations. The Occident’s 250-year-old and the Orient’s 80-year-old democracies continue to endure a love-hate cycle of bonhomie and bickering.

Though it would be incorrect to brand the US as an unfriendly nation per se, the fact is that America today is an openly unpredictable, erratic and turbulent partner, so much so that even the most experienced globetrotting envoys and their political bosses are at a loss to tackle its whims and fancies. Contemporary USA is a diplomat’s nightmare because every head of state or government is expected to tread far beyond the realm of established universal norms of international diplomacy. Seen thus, what India did in Bishkek could also be repeated in New Delhi. India as host has nothing to fear.

The writer is an alumnus of the National Defence College. Views are personal.