Sunil Gatade | A ‘Cat And Mouse’ Game On In Maha As BJP’s Allies Are Getting Sidelined

The Bollywood song “Matlab nikal gaya hai to pahachante nahi” perfectly captures the issues and predicament of the ruling BJP’s allies in Maharashtra, who are increasingly being marginalised in the premier state.

Deputy CMs Eknath Shinde, who heads the Shiv Sena, and Ajit Pawar, who leads the NCP, are in one sense in office but not in power, which is virtually enjoyed by chief minister Devendra Fadnavis of the BJP.

The “Mahayuti”, as the ruling front in the state is called, is like a picture produced and directed by the BJP, which plays the protagonist too. All others are side actors, or extras. It depends upon the angle you look at them.

Mr Shinde and Mr Pawar are virtually at the mercy of the BJP, which proclaims itself to be the world’s largest party. The party is feverishly widening its footprint under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and home minister Amit Shah, and insisting that everything is fair in politics and elections.

Their predicament is coming sharply to the fore ahead of the civic elections, dubbed the mini-Assembly polls, expected in the New Year. The BJP is turning the elections into a golden opportunity to cut the allies down to size.

The tragedy is that neither Mr Shinde nor Mr Pawar could do anything about it. They have to “just grin and bear it” if they do not want to attract the wrath of the “big brother”.

With Ajit Pawar’s son Parth embroiled in Pune’s Rs 400-crore Mundhwa land scam, the BJP is soft-pedalling the issue to ensure the deputy CM’s virtual silence. The alleged corruption to the tune of Rs 70,000 crores during his earlier tenures as deputy CM is the baggage he carries. This neutralises him, which is good for Mr Fadnavis and the BJP high command.

The greater tragedy is that of Mr Shinde, who was demoted as deputy CM after being CM for nearly two and a half years, till the last Assembly polls a year ago. It is a double whammy for Mr Shinde, who considered Amt Shah as his mentor at the Centre and was obviously playing on the BJP’s side. Mr Shinde now finds himself in a blind alley.

At such a critical time, Mr Fadnavis has struck a severe blow at Mr Shinde by ensuring the appointment of his close associate Ravindra Chavan as state BJP chief. Mr Chavan hails from Thane, Mr Shinde’s home turf, and is thereby creating trouble there, much to the bewilderment of the deputy CM. Added to this is the fact that local BJP leader Ganesh Naik, a known detractor of Mr Shinde, has been made proactive ahead of the civic polls.

Another worry for Mr Shinde is the BJP is poaching leaders from his party who could make the difference in the civic polls. His protests have fallen on deaf ears.

In the coastal Konkan region, there is one-upmanship between the Sena and the BJP over the number of nominations for the polls and has obviously led to rivalries at the local level. Konkan has remained a bastion of the undivided Shiv Sena, as has the megapolis of Mumbai.

The undivided Shiv Sena had been ruling over the resource-rich Municipal Corporation of Mumbai for some 25 years. In the changed situation, the BJP wants to be in the driver’s seat there, much to the consternation of Mr Shinde and his party.

Mr Shinde is unsure about how many seats the BJP would be allotting him in Mumbai and in the Konkan region, as well as in pockets of Marathwada and Western Maharashtra where the Shiv Sena has some presence.

The verdict in last year’s Assembly elections has altered the political scenario of the state drastically. The BJP has been in a dominant position, with over 130 seats in the 288-member House, where 145 is the magic number. Since it is at a striking distance of a majority, the BJP does not really need the support of either Mr Shinde or Mr Pawar.

Mr Shinde’s party had won 57 seats in the polls, one more than the undivided Shiv Sena in the 2019 polls. Ajit Pawar’s party secured 41 seats.

The mandate in Maharashtra is such that the entire Opposition, including Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray, the NCP led by Sharad Pawar and the Congress have together been restricted to 50-odd seats.

Therefore, the BJP’s agenda is to marginalise the allies to the extent possible. Union home minister Amit Shah’s blunt statement sometime back that the BJP does not want to depend on “crutches” in Maharashtra is to tell Mr Shinde and Mr Pawar that they are dispensable, sooner rather than later.

Needless to say, Maharashtra’s ruling coalition is witnessing a “cat and mouse game”, in which the BJP is constantly pursuing Ekanth Shinde and Ajit Pawar, who are trying to avoid being marginalised with one trick or another to live another day.

With the BJP being the “big cat”, it has the time, leisure and strategy as to when to go for the final hunt. In politics, timing is important, and the BJP does not seem to be in a hurry. The aim of the BJP is to fight the next Assembly polls scheduled in 2029 on its own.

Till then, it is playtime in Maharashtra. With Mr Shinde and Ajit Pawar ready to fight the civic polls under the banner of the Mahayuti, it is politically imprudent for the BJP to play the tune of “going it alone” in the polls. The immediate aim is to keep the allies in check. It goes without saying that for the moment, both Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar want to be “good and obedient” allies.

The writer is a journalist based in New Delhi