Pavan K. Varma | NDA United, But Is Nitish Playing His Last Innings?
The conspiracy, to my mind, was unethical, unnecessary, and dangerous. One consequence was that the RJD’s seats were artificially boosted, since it was the principal gainer of the 38 seats that the JD(U) lost
I have often wondered why in the 2020 elections, the BJP used Chirag Paswan as a Trojan horse to downsize its own alliance partner, Nitish Kumar and the Janata Dal (United). In that election, Chirag, calling himself the ‘Hanuman’ of Narendra Modi, fielded his party — the LJP (RV) — solely targeting the JD(U)’s candidates. This led to an estimated loss of 38 seats for the JD(U), reducing it to a rump of 43 seats, much below BJP’s 74, which became by far the senior partner.
I remember meeting Nitish Kumar after this. I was then no longer a part of the JD(U). A year earlier, both Prashant Kishor and I had been expelled on the same day by the same letter for our Opposition to the CAA-NRC. However, ideological differences notwithstanding, Nitish and I remained friends. When we met, he was livid at the way the BJP and Chirag had conspired against him.
The conspiracy, to my mind, was unethical, unnecessary, and dangerous. One consequence was that the RJD’s seats were artificially boosted, since it was the principal gainer of the 38 seats that the JD(U) lost. If these seats had not come to Tejashwi Yadav, the RJD’s tally would have been roughly half of what it ended up getting — 75, one more than the BJP, making it the single largest party. The NDA finally managed to form the government by the skin of its teeth. In over a dozen seats the margin of victory for the NDA was razor-thin, ranging from literally a couple of votes to less than 2000. In short, in the conspiracy by the BJP to make Nitish Kumar the junior partner in the NDA, the RJD almost won the elections! This time too, Chirag’s party has got as many as 29 seats, when in 2020 it won only one, something that could be of concern to Nitish.
In 2020, the JD(U) fought on 115 seats and the BJP 110. This time both are fighting on 101 seats. However, apart from the JD(U)’s seats being reduced, there are three other significant differences. Firstly, Nitish, as compared to 2020, is in poorer physical and mental condition, and his party in greater disrepair. Secondly, a new factor is the emergence of Jan Suraaj and Prasant Kishor. If an unprepared Chirag Paswan, fielding candidates at the last minute against Nitish, could damage him so greatly, it has to be seen how much more a well-prepared and organisationally strong Jan Suraaj will dent JD(U)’s tally. Thirdly, unlike in 2020, the BJP has not announced that Nitish will be the CM should the NDA win.
On the last point, there has been a fair amount of controversy. Both Amit Shah and Narendra Modi, in public speeches in Bihar, have only said that the NDA will fight the 2025 elections under the leadership of Nitish. However, neither of them has said that in case the NDA wins, Nitish will be the chief minister. The maximum they have committed to is that the winning legislators of the NDA will decide who the next CM will be. The message has gone loud and clear, both to Nitish and the JD(U), and there’s resentment and consternation in their camp. To Nitish’s mind, it must be apparent, that what is happening now is a continuation of the coup of 2020, when the BJP used Chirag to deliberately diminish his party. If that is the case, Nitish is fighting his last innings, after having established an all-India record of being sworn in nine times as CM.
The BJP has on an average never definitively crossed the 20 per cent mark in terms of vote support. It has, thus, never won a majority in Bihar, and never been able to fulfil its long-cherished dream of having its own CM in this important Hindi-belt state. It is unlikely that it can significantly improve upon past performance in these elections. However, in all likelihood its strike rate — as in the 2020 elections — will be higher than that of the JD(U). Will this enable it to snuff out Nitish’s CM aspirations and dispense with an unreliable leader who has ditched it on more than one occasion in the past? If so, who will lead the JD(U)? A leader co-opted by the BJP, already waiting in the wings? Speculations continue to be rife. But one thing is clear: The BJP does not have a credible face of its own to be the CM. Samrat Choudhary, its deputy CM, is a 10th fail, who was in jail as an accused for murder in 1995, and secured his release as a juvenile on the basis of a false birth certificate as is evident from records in the public realm.
By contrast, the Mahagathbandhan has finally declared Tejashwi as its CM face. But under the show of surface unity, subterranean tensions still run high, given the intra-party jockeying for seats wherein “friendly fights” were on the table till the very last date of withdrawal of nominations. Frankly, in competitive electoral politics, there is no such thing as a “friendly fight”. Moreover, the RJD still evokes memories of the “Jungle Raj” of Lalu’s rule. Tejashwi, who is only ninth class pass, is neither a savvy representative of Gen Z, nor can he credibly represent his father’s plank of social justice. The weakest point in the India coalition is the Congress. In 2020, the Congress insisted on grabbing 70 seats, but could only win 19. If anything, this time around it is even weaker, but is contesting — by trampling upon its own allies — on 60 seats, far beyond its electoral abilities and organisational strength.
Most people think Biharis cannot think beyond caste loyalties. Firstly, it is not as if in other states caste does not exist. Secondly, people forget that Bihar is also the state where history-changing events transcending caste, like the Sampoorna Kranti of Jaiprakash Narayan, occurred. The treasury is empty, but revdis and jumlas are raining down. On November 14 we will know whether Biharis have opted for real change rather than the sterile status quo of the past.
