Claude Arpi | Planet In Trouble: Climate Risks Are Ignored Amid Push for ‘Development’

On January 7, 2025, an earthquake measuring 7.1 on the Richter scale struck Tingri County, in Shigatse prefecture of Tibet. Reports said between 126 and 400 people lost their lives and 338 were injured. It was also felt in Nepal, where 13 people died.

Wikipedia says the Tibetan plateau attains its high elevation due to crustal thickening caused by the collision of the Indian tectonic plate with the Eurasian plate, creating the Himalayas.

On December 8, Japan’s Meteorological Agency announced that a powerful 7.5-magnitude earthquake shook northeastern Japan, injuring 20 people and triggering tsunami warnings. It first warned a 10-feet tsunami could hit Japan’s coast; but later downgraded its warnings.

A few days later, India Today asked: “Should India brace for the Great Himalayan Earthquake?”

This is “a hypothetical, massive seismic event that could occur along the Main Himalayan Thrust, a major fault line running beneath the Himalayas.

It’s a fact that the Indian tectonic plate is slowly, relentlessly pushing under the Eurasian plate, building up immense stress over centuries.

The article cited the 1934 Bihar-Nepal earthquake (8.0) and the 2015 Nepal earthquake (7.8), saying: “When this stress is finally released, it could trigger a quake of magnitude 8.0 or higher – which could devastate large parts of northern India, Nepal, and neighbouring regions.”

Dr Om Prakash Mishra, director of the National Centre for Seismology, says this “aseismic creep” stress release through minor tremors may act as a natural safety valve.

A study published in Down to Earth mentioned glacial quakes caused by massive icebergs capsizing, as they break off from main glaciers. It identifies over 360 such seismic events in Antarctica between 2010 and 2023, which could send sea levels rising rapidly, as these icequakes, not following seasonal temperature patterns, trigger huge chunks of ice to fall from glaciers into the sea.

When these icebergs capsize, it generates “strong mechanical ground vibrations, or seismic waves”.

The world is undoubtedly in turmoil today: Some events are “natural”, but most are man-made (like the pollution in Delhi). Environmental issues are neglected in favour of “development”. When will the world realise that “climate change” is real and we have to act accordingly?

In 2023, China’s President Xi Jinping told 2,300 delegates at Beijing’s Great Hall of the People: “We must be prepared for worst-case scenarios, and be ready to withstand high winds, choppy waters and even dangerous storms.” Though he was speaking of politics, it’s true for the environment as well.

Besides the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, the environment has been the first big planetary casualty.

There are hundreds of examples: Greenland’s ice sheet is melting faster and faster. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says the ice sheet continued to lose mass despite above-average winter snow accumulation: between August 2022 and September 2023, it lost roughly 350 trillion pounds of mass. Let’s not forget the Greenland ice sheet melting is the second-largest contributor to sea-level rise.

A report by the International Cryosphere Climate Initiative, a network of senior policy experts working with governments, agrees that mountainous regions like the Himalayas are facing the most severe effects from the climate change. Beyond a two-degree Celsius rise, Earth will experience “catastrophic loss” of mountain glaciers and snow, sea ice and permafrost, notes the report.

It’s not that world leaders haven’t been warned with hard facts and scientific reports. Every year, Northern Sikkim experiences severe Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF); in 2023, South Lhonak Lake, located at an altitude of 17,000 feet, suffered a rupture because of continuous rainfall. Consequently, water gushed into the downstream regions, causing flooding in the Teesta River. It caused the breach of Chungthang hydro-dam on the Teesta in northern Sikkim, leading to a large number of casualties.

A scientific report by Nature in January 2023 explained: “Since 1990, globally, the number and size of glacial lakes have grown rapidly along with downstream population, while socio-economic vulnerability has decreased.”

American TV’s Weather Channel argues that India faces the gravest challenge, posing climate change-induced health vulnerability: “Prolonged summers, unpredictable rains, floods, droughts, and rising sea levels are the harsh realities of climate change in the country. These factors increase the frequency and severity of illnesses, pushing people into poverty, and forcing migration.”

Prof Shakil Ahmad Romshoo, eminent earth scientist and vice-chancellor of the Islamic University of Science and Technology, in J&K’s Awantipora, noted: “The Kolahoi Glacier [in Kashmir] has been retreating rapidly over the past several decades.” Scientific observations show it has lost nearly 30 per cent of its area between 1992 and 2025, with the highest recession in the last decade.

This is without even mentioning the high atmospheric pollution in the big cities, which will lead to millions of casualties in the long term. For this too, politicians are quick to shift the blame on the neighbouring states or individuals.

Year 2026 will probably see more natural disasters, calamities, tragedies. Remember two years ago, when the Silkyara Bend-Barkot tunnel in Uttarkashi district of Uttarakhand caved in, simply because proper environmental studies had not been conducted. This will continue as long as we worship only one god -- development -- and forget to bow to another goddess -- Mother Nature.

If the former continues to be privileged, there will be a backlash by the latter, with dire consequences for the human race.

A small light at the end of the tunnel: a few months ago, a group of senior citizens, including Dr Murli Mahohar Joshi and Dr Karan Singh, wrote to then Chief Justice of India B.R. Gavai seeking a review of the 2021 Supreme Court order allowing the 825-km Char Dham road expansion project in Uttarakhand. But will their voices be heard? Probably not.

Claude Arpi is Distinguished Fellow at the Centre of Excellence for Himalayan Studies, Shiv Nadar Institution of Eminence (Delhi), and writes on India, China, Tibet and Indo-French relations