Karachi: Well, at least it was fun. After weeks — months — of pontificating and braying by anti-democrats, it was a change to see a democratish type get his licks in. And how he roared. Good for him, good for Nawaz. The tree of democracy must be refreshed from time to time with a jalsa or two. Too late for Nawaz to save his job, but at least something different to the dire, soulless stuff that had come before.
Let’s not kid ourselves: nobody knows. The problem with judicial ousters is that no matter how political the verdict, there’s never an indication of what comes next. Because judges don’t rule, they only arbitrate.
By definition a reactive institution — the judiciary can only rule on a dispute that is brought to it. Nawaz’s ouster was a judicial grenade lobbed into the political arena. But Nawaz reacted unpredictably and GT Road has reacted even more unpredictably.
Angered possibly more by the targeting of Maryam, and so the disruption of his succession plans, than the ouster of himself, Nawaz went back into campaign mode. And whoever convinced him to abandon his beloved Motorway for GT Road deserves a Tamgha-i-Jamhooriat. Even a fool can now see that Nawaz is still vastly popular and, more importantly for Nawaz, he is the PML(N).
As for the GT Road turnout, neither friend nor enemy will admit the surprise — nor shock or fear, depending on which camp they’re in. Because at the heart of Pakistani electoral politics is a mystery that no one involved in the game wants to admit to.
This part of the country to that party, that part of the country to this party. Everyone reacting logically and in a predictable manner.
But 2008 and 2013 actually demonstrated something quite different. 2008 was supposed to be a BB wave, 2013 another coalition government — and neither happened. For two reasons. The profile of the electorate has changed significantly and, for historical reasons, no one has ever been able to test what happens if you allow successive elections.
Basically, every assumption about the democratic process, and who votes for whom, in Pakistan is rooted in assumptions that are loose and anecdotal. So, GT Road has been a shock to the system. Don’t for a second believe that it hasn’t shocked the PML(N) as much as it has its enemies — you can see it in the elation of one side and the anxiety of the other. But there’s no reason to get carried away. Democracy has hardly been saved nor is it the core of Nawaz’s purpose.
Looking in from the outside, there’s three players and each has played their hand in this first round. The court, in its abomination of a judgement, has revealed its determination to not just oust Nawaz, but its interest in shutting him out of the system forever.
The boys, via the slashing JIT report, have revealed a willingness to see the back of Nawaz, even if they don’t want to be seen directly disrupting the democratic process. And Nawaz, via the political capital harvested along GT Road, has demonstrated that he’s not willing to go.
The problem is obvious: the current configuration is not sustainable. Nawaz has roared, but what’s his plan? The judiciary has spoken, but how much more are they willing to wreak?
From the outside, the best-case scenario is that the self-interested choices of the three main players creates some kind of beneficial, ancillary effect for the democratic project. Some may wish that’s the court forcing a quick accountability judgement. But that’s easier said than done.
Others may wish that the boys just step in and wrap up this farce. But the boys’ silence speaks of an institution unprepared. And yet others may hope that it does not lead to the end of the democratic road. So now one side or the other or the third will have to make the first next move. Either the court, the boys or Nawaz. The heart says, may Nawaz do the right thing. And the gut says, the boys have had enough.
By arrangement with Dawn
