It’s been over a month since Mufti Muhammad Sayeed passed away and his state Jammu and Kashmir has been without a government. In the immediate aftermath of his death, it appeared that his daughter and heiress-apparent Mehbooba Mufti was grieving and needed time to gather her thoughts.
Now the delay is because she cannot or will not make up her mind about continuing the alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party. From reports it appears that the People’s Democratic Party and she felt that Mufti Muhammad was getting disillusioned with the BJP and Ms Mufti wants guarantees and commitments from the BJP. What these are has not been specified, but she has spoken of “confidence-building measures.”
The BJP has been diplomatic in handling the situation sending emissaries to meet Ms Mufti and assuage her feelings, but has made it clear that there should be no conditions. With 25 seats in the House to the PDP’s 28 (now 27, after Sayeed’s death), the BJP can afford to be “stand-offish”, but surely it does not want to be the one to precipitate a crisis that will lead to another election.
Mufti Muhammad Sayeed, the experienced and wily political animal that he was, never publicly expressed his unhappiness with the BJP but it became increasingly clear that he was getting worked up about the aggressive stance of Hindutva forces and had to also handle the increasing dissidence in his own party about the alliance with the BJP.
The BJP had made severe compromises to become part of the government, including keeping silent on Article 370. Even if the Mufti had not died, the government may not have lasted too long.
In another north Indian state, Punjab, the BJP is at loggerheads with its long-standing friend and ally the Akali Dal. Anyone who knows anything about Punjab will say that the two are not natural allies, but they have stuck on for years; that’s politics for you. The relationship was clearly delineated; the Akali Dal was the dominant partner and the BJP, with only a handful of seats, had to kowtow to it, but with elections coming up and the BJP in an aggressive mood, that arrangement may well be adjusted.
The BJP at the state level has been restless and the Akalis have been complaining that its leaders are not given the respect they deserve; it takes a long time for their leader Parkash Singh Badal to get even a meeting with Prime Minister Prime Minister Narendra Modi, they have complained.
In public, both swear eternal love but with the Aam Aadmi Party posing a credible threat and the Congress showing signs of some resurgence under Captain Amarinder Singh, the BJP and the Akalis will have no option but to hang together if they don’t want to hang separately. Left to itself, the BJP will want to go it alone but it does not have the clout in the state to do so.
In the third state where the BJP has a partner, Maharashtra, “bad marriage” is the only way to describe the situation. Neither the BJP nor the Shiv Sena wants a divorce but not a day goes by without them bickering in public and hurling the choicest comments at the other. The Shiv Sena is better at it and through its mouthpiece Saamna makes some sharp digs at not just the BJP government in the state but at the Centre, reserving its best sarcasm for the Prime Minister.
The BJP has a passive aggressive style but clearly has no intention of rocking the boat. Ruling Maharashtra and its capital city Mumbai is paramount and it is ready to lump it to ensure the government does not fall. As the elections to the lucrative Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation come closer, expect more fireworks.
Why is the BJP, the national ruling party and on the ascendant, facing so many problems with its friends and allies? Why are its smaller partners in the National Democratic Alliance upset at being reduced to figureheads? It’s not always the BJP’s fault — the Sena is not exactly the easiest party to get along with — but with diplomacy and charm one can manage even the most prickly of personalities. Atal Behari Vajpayee managed it well.
Narendra Modi and his party president Amit Shah are not Vajpayee. The new BJP is not about winning friends; it is about getting power and demonstrating it. Mr Modi thinks very little of the Sena and Mr Shah would like to take over — swiftly, if possible — the constituency that the Sena has called its own all along. There cannot be room for two Hindutva-oriented parties in Maharashtra; the BJP wants to be the only one.
In Punjab, the BJP is aware that the Akalis are now almost totally discredited; sooner or later they will have to part ways, though it is difficult to say at this stage whether they will fight the elections separately. Becoming part of the government in Jammu and Kashmir was a huge step for the BJP, but if Ms Mufti dilly-dallies for too long, the BJP will not mind another election; the last time’s results were very encouraging.
The Congress, too, had problems adjusting to a coalition, but then it had been in power by itself for decades. Now it is ready to play third fiddle, as it did in Bihar. The BJP has come to power on its own and sees no reason to be conciliatory. If the Paswans feel uncomfortable, they can leave; naturally they will not leave, since they have nowhere to go. The same applies to the Shiv Sena.
This attitude has its limitations and in states like Uttar Pradesh, where there are two other large and influential players, the BJP will have to be more flexible. Given the BJP’s handling of its allies elsewhere, a partner such as Mayawati is going to set some very difficult conditions. Going it alone is an option, but then the chances of winning are substantially reduced. Events in Jammu and Kashmir have shown that the BJP is — subtly — changing its ways, but it still has some way to go.
