Voters of the state of Kerala hold the distinction of not electing the same government in successive elections since 1977. For that reason alone the return of the Left Democratic Front government (LDF, a coalition of Communist Party of India-Marxist, Communist Party of India, Janata Dal-Secular, Nationalist Congress Party and other political parties) seems imminent after the 2016 Assembly elections. This alternate change seems to be a matter of routine rather than a reflection of the performance of the government. Findings of surveys conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) after various Assembly elections in Kerala do not indicate negative rating for any government, yet the ruling party gets defeated in the next election. Victory and defeat in Kerala, in fact, is decided by narrow margins, another indication of not very strong negative or positive opinion of the people for or against any government.
Apart from the state’s electoral history, even the results of the recent local body elections held in Kerala indicate a return of the LDF government. The United Democratic Front (UDF, an alliance of the Congress, Indian Union Muslim League, Kerala Congress-M, Revolutionary Socialist Party, Janata Dal-United and Kerala Congress-Jacob), which kept winning most of the local body elections since it came to power in the state in 2011, suffered a setback in the recent ones, indicating a change in the mood of the voters.
While there could be some local issues that may have influenced voters, one thing is sure — corruption charges worked against the UDF government in the local body elections. With the LDF sure to make an issue of this in the forthcoming elections, it’s very likely to further dent the prospects of the UDF.
In the recent past a decline has been witnessed in the support base of the UDF. Its vote share dropped from 45.8 per cent in the 2011 Assembly elections to 42 per cent in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. In spite of this decline, the UDF maintained its lead over the LDF as the vote share of LDF also declined from 44.9 per cent in the 2011 Assembly to 40.1 per cent in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. The two per cent lead of the UDF resulted in the alliance leading in 80 Assembly segments, while the LDF led in 56 Assembly segments during the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.
Despite the lead the UDF had over the LDF during the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, there is no evidence to suggest whether the lead is still intact or it has declined, or if the LDF has taken over the UDF in terms of popularity. If there is any indication, it is the result of the recent local body elections in which the UDF suffered defeats, an indication of the party’s declining popularity closer to Assembly elections.
But if there is one thing which is clear, it is the increasing popularity of the BJP in Kerala. The party gained popularity during the 2014 Lok Sabha elections and its vote share increased from 6 per cent in the 2011 Assembly elections to 10 per cent in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. The past few months give further indication about the increase in the BJP’s popularity considering that the party performed well in the local body elections in Kerala. Compared to only nine seats in various corporations earlier, the BJP managed to win 51 seats with its best performance in Thiruvananthapuram, where the party won 34 seats. In municipalities the BJP has increased its seat share from 79 in 2010 to 236 in 2015.
Thus, while the LDF has an edge over the UDF at the moment, a careful analysis of election results suggests that the increasing popularity of the BJP might damage the prospects of the LDF much more than those of the UDF. The BJP’s popularity has increased particularly in Kerala’s urban pockets where the party polled 13.7 per cent votes, more than its average. The vote share of the LDF was 36.5 per cent in urban constituencies, compared to its average vote share of 40.1 per cent. This big shift of upper class voters from the LDF to the BJP is reason for concern for the LDF.
The urban young voters also seem to be attracted to the BJP. Survey conducted by CSDS during the 2014 Lok Sabha suggests that among the upper class voters, 22 per cent voted for the BJP while 27 per cent voted for the LDF. There was also a shift among voters belonging to the Nair community, of whom 30 per cent voted for the LDF and 30 per cent for the BJP. The BJP is making an effort to woo the Nair community by wooing the Nair Service Society (an upper-caste Hindu outfit) and other similar organisations.
Going by the state’s electoral history, a change of government seems most likely, but this trend can be reversed. Punjab had a similar history of not re-electing the same government in successive elections, but the 2007 Assembly elections threw a surprise as the Akali-BJP government retained power in the state. Who knows, Kerala may be heading the Punjab way in 2016?
The possible alliance of the BJP and the Bharat Dharma Jan Sena, a new political outfit of the Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana movement which is popular amongst the Ezhava community, can damage the prospects of the LDF.
The two main communities in Kerala are the Ezhavas and the Nairs. They account for about 23 and 14 per cent of Kerala’s population respectively. The two communities have traditionally voted differently from each other and never as a unified Hindu bloc. But the BJP is making a rather ambitious attempt to unify the “Hindu vote”.
The Ezhavas, more sizeable in numbers, were once the backbone of the Left in the state. They might shift towards the BDJS-BJP alliance. While the new alliance will nowhere be close to forming the government, a shift in voters of the Nair and Ezhava communities towards the BJP may further damage the vote base of the LDF more than UDF. The internal strife within LDF would be another issue on account of which the front will suffer in the forthcoming elections.
