If PDP president Mehbooba Mufti, following the demise of her chief minister father Mufti Muhammad Sayeed last week, is playing to succeed him as the leader of the J&K government, it is understandable that she should show signs of some insecurity about the intentions of the BJP, which had come together to form a coalition government with the Kashmiri regional party in March last year.
There have been indications lately that the saffron party would like to politically rework the terms of engagement with the PDP after the death of the state’s stalwart and charismatic CM, whose very presence brought some order to the scene.
Perhaps BJP feels that even if Ms Mufti is not a pushover, she can be pushed around just a little into yielding a situation where the two partners may have the CM’s position by rotation (as was the case when PDP and Congress were in a coalition, 2002-2008), and re-work some of the portfolios.
These may be legitimate aspirations for a party but are in this case an unrealistic expectation. The BJP had moved heaven and earth last year to enter into a power-sharing arrangement in the Muslim-majority state bordering Pakistan. For it, it was the first time in J&K. The party should ask itself if it would like to lose out entirely if the PDP leadership begins to shop around for other allies.
A sign of enhanced ambition in the BJP is that it has so far not written to governor N.N. Vohra signifying support to Ms Mufti’s bid for the CM’s post. Why this delay if the BJP is not keen to alter the terms of endearment?
Going with BJP has progressively lessened PDP’s appeal in the Valley.
Improving relations between Jammu and the Valley was an aim of the PDP-BJP alliance. This has not come to pass. On account of communalised politics from Jammu, ties have got worse, if anything. There has also been no hefty financial infusion from the Centre, another justification for the unlikely alliance.
To retrieve its regional reputation, the PDP may well seek to explore other partnerships if BJP pushes too hard. But any strong political play, on the part of either coalition partner, is likely to throw Kashmir into an unstable situation. If PDP and the Congress try to come together, they have a small numbers deficit.
Even if that is sought to be made up with the help of minor elements, the Centre could step in to play games and make life difficult, possibly leading to fresh polls. PDP, Congress and National Conference — all together — may muster enough numbers but it is hard to see Kashmir’s two regional rivals being banded together. It is time for the coalition partners to keep their head.
