Mumbai: With the Election Commission of India (ECI) announcing the election schedule for the 56 Rajya Sabha seats in the country, the polls for six seats in Maharashtra have assumed a great significance due to the changed political equations in the state. After the splits in the Shiv Sena and the NCP, the rival camps are likely to clash against each other over the whip issue if voting take place during the elections.
The tenures of current Rajya Sabha MPs Prakash Javadekar, V Muralidharan, Narayan Rane (all BJP), Anil Desai (Shiv Sena), Vandana Chavan (NCP) and Kumar Ketkar (Congress) from Maharashtra are set to conclude on April 2, 2024, leading to the vacancy of six Rajya Sabha seats from the state.
Based on the party strength in Maharashtra Vidhan Sabha, all three seats of BJP and one from Congress will be elected comfortably. After the splits in the Shiv Sena and the NCP, the nominee of Eknath Shinde Sena faction and Ajit Pawar-led NCP, due to their numerical advantage, are expected to sail through without difficulty.
For a win, the nominee needs to secure 41 first preference votes in the polls. While the BJP has 104 MLAs in the Vidhan Sabha, it can secure all three seats with the help of independents and smaller parties. Congress with 45 MLAs will face no trouble in getting its lone nominee elected. After the split in their parties, the Shinde Shiv Sena and the Ajit Pawar NCP enjoy support of 40 and 43 party MLAs respectively, which will ensure their nominee's win.
On the contrary, the Thackeray group has 15 MLAs in their side, whereas Pawar group is left with only 10 MLAs. Even if they decide to put up a joint candidate, it will be hard for them to reach the figure 41, which means that they will have to lose their seats in the Rajya Sabha.
While the Rajya Sabha polls for six seats in Maharashtra are likely to be held unopposed, they may get entangled into a legal issue if the voting takes place. Assembly speaker Rahul Narwekar has acknowledged Shinde camp MLA Bharat Gogawale as the Shiv Sena whip and directed that the Shiv Sena (UBT) MLAs will have to follow his whip. The Sena UBT MLAs have already made it clear that they will not follow Gogawale’s whip.
The verdict on the NCP split is expected to be given in February. If it goes the same Sena way, a similar dispute may come up over the whip issue.
“As the voting will be held in an open manner, the Thackeray camp MLAs cannot vote against the whip as per the speaker's dictat. But the situation is not likely to arise, as the election is expected to be held unopposed,” said a senior state official.
