Retail Inflation Drops to Multi-Year Low of 0.25% in October
The food inflation in October, 2025 is the lowest of the current CPI series
New Delhi: With the recently implemented GST rate cut and subdued prices of vegetables and fruits, headline retail inflation slipped to a multi-year low of 0.25 per cent in October. The latest consumer price index (CPI) print was well below expectations and marks the lowest reading since the current CPI series began in 2015, which uses 2012 as the base year.
As per the data released by the National Statistics Office (NSO), the CPI-based retail inflation was 1.44 per cent in September this year and 6.21 per cent in October last year. “The food inflation, however, declined to (-) 5.02 per cent in October this year,” the NSO said.
“The decline in headline inflation and food inflation during October 2025 was mainly attributed to the whole month's impact of GST rate cut, favourable base effect, and a drop in inflation of oils and fats, vegetables, fruits, egg, footwear, cereals and products, transport and communication,” the NSO added.
As per the data, corresponding inflation rates for rural and urban areas are –4.85 per cent and -5.18 per cent, respectively. “All India inflation rates for CPI (general) and CFPI over the last 13 months are shown below. A decrease of 269 basis points is observed in food inflation in October 2025 in comparison to September 2025. The food inflation in October, 2025 is the lowest of the current CPI series,” the data showed.
Reacting to the data, Aditi Nayar, chief economist, ICRA Ltd said that India’s CPI inflation expectedly slumped to a record low of 0.3 per cent in October 2025 from 1.4 per cent in September 2025, while printing slightly lower than ICRA’s expectations of +0.5 per cent.
“The dip was largely driven by the F & B segment, with the deflation in the same widening to 3.7 per cent from 1.4 per cent in the previous month. This accounted for as much as 116 bps of the 120 bps cooling in the headline inflation print between September 2025 and October 2025,” Nayar said.
“Core inflation, excluding F&B, F&L, and petrol and diesel for vehicles, remained unchanged at 4.5 per cent with the impact of the GST rationalisation getting dulled by the spike in gold and silver prices during the festive season," she said.
"Looking ahead, we expect the F&B segment to remain in the deflationary zone in November 2025, although the extent of the same may narrow, as the favourable base begins to fade away. This would push up the inflation to above ~1.0 per cent in November 2025,” she added.
