LDF, UDF Claim Victory Post Exit Poll Results

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: Exit poll results in Kerala have sparked mixed reactions, with all three major political fronts making claims and counterclaims ahead of the official results on May 4.

Most polls predict a win for the Congress-led UDF, though with varying seat margins, while the ruling LDF refuses to accept defeat based on projections alone. Interestingly, none of the agencies foresees a complete wipeout for the CPM-led Left Democratic Front.

Seat estimates for the UDF range from 75 to 93 at the high end and 45 to 69 at the low, while the BJP has reason to cheer as surveys suggest it could win up to three seats, marking its entry into the assembly.

With exit poll results not matching their expectations, the LDF leadership is reacting cautiously. “We are not worried about the exit polls. These clearly show two things: there is no anti-incumbency against the LDF government, and Pinarayi Vijayan remains the top choice of the people of Kerala for Chief Minister,” said CPM state secretary M V Govindan.

In one survey, 33 per cent want Vijayan to continue as CM, followed by opposition leader V D Satheeshan with 21 per cent. Ramesh Chennithala trails with 8 per cent, K C Venugopal has about 3 per cent, and BJP’s Rajeev Chandrasekhar holds 4 percent.

Govindan noted that the exit polls give the LDF between 60 and 69 seats, just two short of a majority. With a reported margin of error of 7 to 10 seats, there’s still a strong chance of the LDF returning to power, he claimed.

“It’s interesting to see some surveys now giving 14 seats to the BJP. They might be presenting these figures out of some compulsion, but I can say with certainty that the BJP will not win even a single seat in Kerala,” he claimed.

LDF convener T P Ramakrishnan recalled that in 2021, exit polls had predicted the defeat of even prominent LDF leaders, but the actual results were quite the opposite, with the front winning 99 seats and retaining power.

AICC general secretary K C Venugopal stated that the exit poll results don’t reflect the real situation on the ground. “During the campaign, we saw a wave in favor of the UDF. May 4 will be UDF Day. We’re confident of a big win,” he said.

He declined to comment on who the Congress CM candidate would be if the UDF won, explaining that the AICC and state leadership had decided no leader would speak on the matter.

Meanwhile, Shashi Tharoor MP expressed confidence in a UDF victory in Kerala, predicting they would secure more than 75 seats.

The Congress state leadership is staying cautious and hasn’t started celebrating the exit poll results yet. The Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) has indirectly backed Satheeshan for the chief minister’s post if the results hold true on counting day.

IUML chief Sayed Sadik Ali Shihab Thangal said it’s up to the Congress high command and state leadership to decide on the chief minister, adding that his party trusts they’ll follow public sentiment. On Satheeshan being the top choice among UDF leaders, he noted that people’s opinion will be considered.

Meanwhile, the Chennithala and Venugopal camps, once actively promoting their leaders, seem to have quieted down after the exit polls, with both far behind Satheeshan in popularity ratings.

Many believe Satheeshan should be the natural choice for the CM post if the UDF wins. As UDF chairman, he has built a strong record in both political and electoral arenas. Since 2021, under his leadership, the UDF has won most assembly by-elections, parliamentary elections, and local body polls.

Political observers note that while Venugopal secured tickets for many of his supporters, if they win, it may be tough for them to go against the prevailing public sentiment.