Bengaluru: This is one pre-poll survey which should definitely cheer up the Congress camp amidst the growing saffron shadow across most states in the country where BJP governments are in place, and set hearts fluttering in the Sangh parivar.
Results of the C fore survey for Karnataka, released by the Congress party, claim that if Assembly elections were held today, the party would win handsomely leaving the opposition BJP and Deve Gowda’s Janata Dal (S) a poor second and third. Conducted across 165 constituencies between July 19 and August 10 this year, the survey used a random sample of 24,679 respondents across these constituencies, and was spread across 340 urban and 550 rural locations.
As per projections, the Congress is set to win 120-132 seats in the 225-member Assembly, the BJP 60-72 and the JD(S) only 24-30, down from the 40 it won in the 2013 polls. The BJP too had won around 40 seats then but its prospects were drastically affected by the split in the party with B.S. Yeddyurappa, (currently BJP state president) breaking away to form his own party, KJP, and contest the polls on his own. Since then, Yeddyurappa has returned to his parent party and is the BJP’s poll mascot for 2018.
Personally for Siddaramaiah, the survey brings good news as he is the most preferred choice for CM, bagging 46% of the votes with Yeddyurappa far behind at 27% and JD(S) state president H.D. Kumaraswamy securing only 17%.
As high as 71% of those surveyed said they were happy with Siddaramaiah’s performance as Chief Minister.
The Congress has also forged ahead of the BJP in terms of vote share and could win 43 per cent of the popular vote compared to the saffron party’s
32 and the JD(S)’ 17.
Since 2004, the state has seen power change hands from a Congress-JD(S) coalition to a BJP-JD(S) coalition, then to the BJP and in the latest poll in 2013, to the Congress. This time, if the survey proves true, the Congress could beat anti-incumbency and ride to power with a comfortable majority.
As far as regions are concerned, it’s a sweep for the Congress except in coastal Karnataka, long considered a saffron bastion, and Bombay-Karnataka where the party may fall behind the BJP. In the capital city of Bengaluru, the Congress is expected to win 16-18 of the 28 seats in a high-pitched battle while the BJP may win only 6-8, much less than the 11 it won in 2013. In Old Mysuru region as a whole, the Congress could win 41-43 seats with the JD(S) coming in second at 22-24.
On specific governance issues, it’s the CM’s pet scheme, Anna Bhagya, which has won hearts with 79 per cent respondents termed it the best scheme.
The actual polls are nine months away, and the C- Fore survey may only be reflective of how voters feel in August, 2017. It may be recalled that people of Karnataka have been decisive in their mandates in the past decade-they overwhelmingly voted for Yeddyurappa in 2008 bringing the BJP to power for the first time in the South and in 2013, it was Siddaramaiah who swept the polls riding a massive wave of anger against the scams of the BJP with the Congress winning more than 120 seats.
C-fore claimed that the predictions for the 2008 and 2013 assembly elections in Karnataka had been 99% accurate.
