Nation Politics 19 Dec 2017 Exit polls fail to h ...

Exit polls fail to hit the nail on head

Published Dec 19, 2017, 2:13 am IST
Updated Dec 19, 2017, 2:13 am IST
Most agencies, channels get figures on victory margin wrong, overlooked emergence of Rahul.
BJP workers celebrate party’s victory in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh Assembly elections, in Lucknow on Monday. 	(Photo: PTI)
 BJP workers celebrate party’s victory in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh Assembly elections, in Lucknow on Monday. (Photo: PTI)

New Delhi: Though most exit polls proved to be right in giving a clear victory to the BJP in both Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh, all of them proved to be way off the mark when it came to accurate prediction of the number of seats. 

The BJP is poised to win 99 seats in Gujarat which is seven more than the 92 it needs to form government in the 182-member Assembly. It has also got 44 of the 68 seats in Himachal Pradesh.


The Congress, led by its new president Rahul Gandhi, defied most exit polls and other predictions to improve its tally in Gujarat from 61 to a possible 77.

In Gujarat, the exit polls predictions were: Today’s Chanakya-News 24 (BJP-135, Congress 47), VDPA (BJP 142, Congress-37), CSDS-ABP (BJP-117, Congress-64).

Others gave a comfortable majority: Axis-India Today (BJP- 99-113, Congress-66), VMR-Times Now (BJP-113, Congress-74), Republic TV (BJP-108, Congress-74), C-Voter-TV 9 (BJP-108, Congress 74), CNX-News X (BJP-110-120, Congress-65-75).

According to the exit polls, the Congress wouldn’t be able to counter the Prime Minister's charisma. That prediction proved to be incorrect as the final results proved to be a very close contest.

In Himachal Pradesh also, though most exit polls were able to predict the winner, most of them missed the mark on the total number of seats secured.

Today’s Chanakya predicted 55 seats for BJP and 13 for Congress, CSDS-ABP (BJP-38 and Congress-29), Axis-India Today (BJP-47-50, Congress-13-20), VMR-Times Now (51-17), Republic TV (BJP-41, Congress-25), C Voter-Times Online (BJP-41, Congress 25) VDPA (BJP-56, Congress-10) and CNX-News X (BJP-46, Congress -21).

Touted as the curtain raiser for the 2019 general elections, the Assembly elections to the two states had seen a bitter campaign. 

The polls were also seen as a litmus test for both Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi, who was recently elevated as the president of the Congress. Both the leaders campaigned extensively in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh.

Location: India, Delhi, New Delhi