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Edappadi K Palaniswami could be the winner, ultimately

Justice K. Chandru, retired Madras high court judge, has an interesting take on this situation.

Chennai: While opinion is divided over the legality of the Speaker's decision to disqualify 18 AIADMK legislators, one interesting interpretation of this unprecedented political quagmire is that the ruling party and Speaker P. Dhanapal might well be happy if the court stays the disqualification or even strikes it down.

The explanation for this runs thus: In the event of the court disagreeing with the Speaker's action, the 18 MLAs get back their seats in the House and when the confidence vote is taken, they would have to obey the whip and support the Edappadi Palaniswami government or face disqualification.

If these 18 MLAs, 'resurrected' by judicial review, obey the whip and vote with the other colleagues in the AIADMK, no problem for them and for the government; but if they vote against the government, they come under quick guillotine and lose seats. If the government falls when the 'rebels' vote against it, the Chief Minister could continue in caretaker capacity and seek confidence vote again after some time. By then, the AIADMK whip would have asked the Speaker to disqualify the 18 rebels and the ruling party regains majority in the truncated House.

The convoluted conjecturing apart, it is anybody's guess how many among the members in this Assembly really want the House to be dissolved and a fresh election called. With almost four years to go before the term ends, how many would be willing to risk another expensive poll test with unpredictable outcome?
“We are told that half-a-dozen MLAs in TTV group are being held there against their will. This disqualification would have rattled them, notwithstanding the television bravado of their commanders. Besides, public opinion in their constituencies is building up against these legislators hiding in resorts. It's just a matter of time”, said a senior minister.

“DMK leader Stalin has gone to the Governor and the high court demanding that the Assembly be convened for a floor test because, he says, EPS has lost majority. What prevents him from going to Speaker Dhanapal and give a representation signed by just 24 of his MLAs asking for a session to test EPS's strength? It's just that he himself is not sure whether all the DMK legislators will vote for bringing down this government and force an election”, said another AIADMK minister.

Justice K. Chandru, retired Madras high court judge, has an interesting take on this situation. According to him, even if the TTV legislators get a stay against the disqualification, it would not matter at all for the Edappadi government because, if they attend the House, they would still have to follow the party whip and vote for the government. “If they don't, they get disqualified. And even if the government fell thus, and the House be kept under suspended animation, the Speaker could then disqualify those who defied the whip and these MLAs will lose their seats, and by extension all the benefits accruing to legislators after a term is completed”, he told DC.

( Source : Deccan Chronicle. )
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