Kochi: Ernakulam district is considered as the UDF citadel and it banks heavily on it to make a difference to its electoral fortunes in the state. In the last Assembly elections, out of the 14 constituencies, the UDF bagged 11 while the LDF had to be content with three. This time also the UDF hopes to repeat the feat though in the changed circumstances, it remains to be seen how it can achieve that goal.
Thripunithura is cynosure of all eyes in the district with sitting MLA and minister K. Babu almost certain to contest from there once again. Mr Babu has been winning for five consecutive terms from the constituency since 1991. However, Mr Babu suffers from a sullied image as excise minister now.
The CPM seems to be confused on its candidate with the name of district secretary P Rajeev now fading away. The party faces factionalism in the constituency. The BJP is making a serious bid for the seat on the back of its sterling performance in the local body elections where it bagged 13 seats. It is said to be considering Major Ravi for the seat.
The UDF is tom-toming the development projects undertaken by the government, including Kochi Metro and Smart City as its major achievements in the district apart from international terminal of the Cochin airport and the construction of a number of bridges across rivers.
The LDF counters this saying the inaugurations of metro rail, Smart City and CIAL terminal were rushed through without fully implementing the projects.
Ernakulam district has the highest concentration of Christian voters in the state, who are traditionally UDF supporters. Christians form 40 percent of the electorate followed by an equal number of Hindus and 20 percent Muslims.
A rare occasion when the LDF secured an upper hand in the district was in 2006 when it bagged ten out of the 14 seats owing to the intense group fighting in the Congress and the formation of DIC-K under K. Karunakaran.
This time, the LDF is handicapped by the lack of popular candidates in several constituencies. It is hoping to cash in on the solar scandal to damage the image of UDF MLAs like Benny Behanan (Thrikkakara) and Hibi Eden (Ernakulam). The three LDF sitting MLAs—S. Sarma (Vypeen), Saju Paul (Perumbavoor) and Jose Thettayil (Angamaly)-- can hope for another term but strong UDF candidates can make things difficult for them.
Mr V.D. Satheesan is formidable in Paravoor while Mr Hibi Eden, Mr Joseph Vazhakkan (Muvattupuzha), Mr Anwar Sadath (Aluva) and Mr V.K. Ebrahim Kunju (Kalamassery) project the development works they have carried out in the constituencies to romp home.
Former mayor Tony Chammany and KPCC vice-president Lali Vincent are eyeing the Kochi seat where Mr Dominic Presentation is the sitting MLA while the LDF is yet to find a winnable candidate. The unrest in the Kerala Congress (Jacob) may work against the UDF in Angamaly and Piravom, where Mr Anoop Jacob is the sitting MLA.
The split in the Kerala Congress would make an impact on Kothamangalam and other eastern constituencies while Kunnathunadu too remains unpredictable where the Twenty20 movement launched by the Kitex business group plays a crucial role. The fall in the prices of rubber will also be an issue in the eastern constituencies.
