Ruling parties are being voted out in almost monotonous regularity since 1991 in this state. Will Jayalalithaa be able to break this jinx? That is the question on our lips these days.
While most opinion polls — even if not all of them reliable — seem to indicate that the ruling AIADMK would be returned to power with a comfortable majority, reporters on the ground seem to smell some strong anti-government mood. Even some senior ministers including the two-time former Chief Minister O. Panneerselvam could bite the dust, they say.
So who is right, the surveys supposedly based on some statistical model or other or the reporters who think that anti-incumbency would assert itself again?
Too dicey to predict even a few days before the elections, but I would like to believe this is almost a waveless election. Derivatively perhaps an issueless election too, though that could sound a bit audacious, even foolhardy.
But let me try to explain. Jayalalithaa’s track record has not exactly been impressive, yes. But then, barring the mess one saw at work during the unseasonal rains in Chennai and its neighbouring regions and the tiresome corruption charges against any government these days, what could provoke overwhelming anger among the people against the ruling regime?
Possibly the prohibition issue, the unfortunate death of crusader Sasi Perumal and the consensus that the Tasmac outlets of the state government selling liquor are ruining hundreds of lives?
It is certainly true such consensus could prove damaging in the normal course — but it is not normal now because DMK patriarch Karunanidhi’s own protestations, denunciations and declarations lack conviction, credibility.
Not only that he was the original sinner, having lifted prohibition back in 1971, subsequently too he didn’t try to even rein in alcohol consumption, despite his several stints as Chief Minister.
His conversion to the anti-alcohol brigade is purely opportunistic, people know. So even if it is possible he could reverse the blunder, you never know when he will go back on that again, they could think — justly.
Corruption, sycophancy and arrogance of power, all characteristic of a Jaya regime did plague this government too right through yes, and her conviction in the disproportionate wealth case, reversed swiftly on grounds seen specious, made many turn up their noses, no doubt.
But are they enough for the electorate at large to vote her out? And don’t forget the slew of freebies promised by her, from scooties to smart phones to loan waivers, drooling might have commenced all across the state already.
By way of stressing that she might not be all that on a losing wicket, let us look back at what happened in 2006. Barely two years earlier the AIADMK had been routed in the Lok Sabha elections — mass dismissal of government employees, orders against animal sacrifices in temples, the gross misuse of the POTA and a number of whimsical measures turning the people against her almost completely.
But she didn’t lose any time in retreating on almost all fronts. And by the time of the Assembly elections, much of the anger possibly evaporated. Even the POTA victim-in-chief Vaiko had little qualms in joining hands with her.
But for the rash of freebies, it is unlikely that the DMK would have edged out the AIADMK then, even then it could rule only with unqualified support from the Congress. If Jayalalithaa could pull of such a feat within two years of a crushing defeat, why shouldn’t she manage to do so this time — when the charge-sheet against her is far less shocking?
Of course the power scenario has been the Achilles’ heel of successive governments. Production, supply and distribution have not been able to match up with the demands, all right. In fact a major cause for the DMK debacle in 2011 was the awful mess on that front.
Jayalalithaa had exploited it to the hilt, but on coming to power she could not do much to set right the situation, assuming she wanted to. A variety of factors were in the way.
Still her government has been able to substantially reduce power cuts across the state, without really implementing any major project, but by merely tweaking here and there, being a lot more proactive, shifting the burden from one sector to another, thus juggling around and so on.
Tamil Nadu might not have become a power surplus state and cuts do occur everywhere, but we are not plagued by prolonged disruptions all the time, it doesn’t bite us much.
If the power scene is a distinct improvement over the previous five years, Jayalalithaa does come in for praise from the common folk for reining in anti-social elements patronised by bigwigs — “ayyo, it used to be terrible back then sir..no relief from extortions..mercifully it is a thing of past under her…”
It is not as if at the sight of a pile of sand, indicating some construction work on the anvil, AIADMK councillors don’t pounce on the hapless and extract their cut. Still it falls under the ‘bearable’ category, such is the general verdict, whereas every other Stalin lieutenant, and Azhagiri’s then, was running a fiefdom of his own, no questions asked. The Madurai Dinakaran daily horror was only the most appalling instance.
Such is the pervasive fear these thugs-come-politicians evoke, Stalin has had to promise during his campaign that anti-social elements would be kept in check this time. But more than anything else, the third front led by Captain is eating into anti-Jaya votes, its leaders are drawing good crowds in many places.
But why shouldn’t the front wean away anti-DMK votes, after all TMC and Vaiko have taken pronounced anti-AIADMK stances. So why wouldn’t those who might otherwise have voted with Jayalalithaa could now plump for the new alliance?
Not a very convincing argument that — only those who wouldn’t like Jayalalithaa to come back to power would vote for the Captain’s kichri.
Yet others say what with the antics of Vijayakanth and Vaiko, the People’s Welfare Front’s attraction as a third option is vanishing into thin air and hence anti-Jaya people would drift back to the DMK. That is very much possible, yes, but their numbers might not be too many as to be decisive.
PMK could be cutting into both AIADMK and DMK votes, hence no great consolation that for the opposition. Let me clarify. It is not exactly a very happy scenario when a mercurial, corrupt and autocratic Jayalalithaa is returned to power despite all that we saw in the last five years.
Swinging between the two discredited Dravidian parties, other options proving a lot more disastrous, smothered by intermediate caste aggression and freebies and floating in alcohol, it is indeed a distressing prospect for a state deemed more progressive than most other states on many indices.
People are not certainly getting the kind of government they deserve — only they are forced to opt for what they deem lesser evil. Well, that is democracy for you.
(The writer is a senior journalist and political commentator)
