HYDERABAD: The ruling Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) appears all set to retain the Dubbak Assembly seat, when the result is announced on Tuesday for the November 3 election. The BJP hopes to wrest the seat from the TRS but it is increasingly expected to take the second place from the Congress.
Counting of votes, beginning with postal ballots, will commence at 8 am on Tuesday. At 8.30 am, the EVMs will be taken up for counting, the first trends will be available in about half an hour. The result is expected at about 12.30 pm.
A lot depends on the outcome of the bypoll in view of the fast approaching elections to the Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation Council. The GHMC polls, interestingly, come in the cusp of the half-way mark of the government’s tenure, from which point it will start getting ready for the 2023 polls.
While the TRS is expected to win the seat, much will be read into its margin of victory. It had won with 37,925 in 2014 and 62,704 in 2018. The Congress secured 26,799 votes and the BJP 22,595 in 2018, though the votes in an Assembly election and a bypoll cannot be compared.
Some senior leaders in their private conversations say that in the unlikely event that the BJP pulls off an upset, then the political calculations will begin to be redrawn in the three main parties. Political observers said that the no-holds-barred verbal war between the TRS and the BJP after money was seized from a relative of BJP candidate M. Raghunandan Rao had changed the equations and converted the triangular fight into a straight contest.
They pointed out that even if the TRS retains the seat, the chances of getting one lakh majority may not be easy, though the ruling party has always performed exceedingly well in byelections historically.
Analysts are of the opinion that if the TRS bags the seat by a smaller margin, Opposition parties will pick up on the issue in the GHMC elections. They pointed out if BJP finishes second place, it would be an advantage to the party as it can the claim to be the only alternative to the TRS and can see dreams of gaining power in the 2023 Assembly elections.
Analysts say that if the Congress ends up third, it will face a tough time in the GHMC election. Besides, BJP leaders have indicated that many Congress leaders could change loyalties. Recently TRS working president K.T. Rama Rao also mentioned in his press conference mentioned that many Congress leaders are likely to switch over to the BJP. Worryingly for the party, it has seen its votes erode from about 44,000 in 2014 to about 26,700 in 2018.
Authorities have made arrangements for counting of votes at Indur Engineering College, Ponnala, near Siddipet. The counting will be conducted in 23 rounds on 14 tables.
The byelection was necessitated by the sudden demise of sitting TRS MLA Solipeta Ramalinga Reddy. Polling was recorded at 82.61 per cent. As many as 23 candidates are in the fray, though the main contest is between TRS candidate Solipeta Sujatha, BJP nominee Raghunandan Rao and Congress candidate Cheruku Srinivas Reddy.
