Analysts of the state’s politics have always asserted that the real battle of Karnataka is in its many distinct regions. The Lokniti-CSDS-ABP News Poll once again stresses this point. If the Congress is ahead of its principal rival the BJP it is on account of the big lead that it appears to have established over it in Hyderabad-Karnataka and the slight advantage it has in the Mumbai-Karnataka, Central – Karnataka, Bengaluru (urban and rural) and Coastal Karnataka regions.
In the critical Southern Karnataka region the JDS seems to be ahead but compared to earlier polls, the indications of a Congress 'catch-up' are clearly evident. Past experience shows that in order to emerge with a majority it is important for a party to do well in Hyderabad-Karnataka and Mumbai-Karnataka.
It is also clear that the real contest is between the Congress and the JDS in Southern Karnataka, while the BJP and the Congress are the key contenders in Mumbai-Karnataka, Hyderabad-Karnataka, Central Karnataka and Coastal Karnataka. All the three major players seem to be in the contest in the urban and rural segments of the Bengaluru region.
What are the important demographic variations in the support being extended to the three key players in the state? Men’s support for the Congress appears to be marginally higher than the women’s when compared to the BJP. There does seem to be a visible ‘generation gap’ in terms of support with the middle-aged and the elderly expressing greater support for the Congress.
Is there a rural-urban divide in support for the three political parties? The Congress has a much wider lead over the BJP in villages and in the big cities and Bengaluru and the BJP has a slight edge over the Congress in the small towns. There is not much variation in the JDS vote across the rural locales and urban centres. An important trend emerging is that the Congress seems to enjoy much higher support than the BJP and the JDS among farmers.
As in the past, the Congress seems to be drawing more intense support among those who have not had access to higher education and the gap reduces when one looks at the vote preference of those who have gone to college and acquired a degree. The same trend is noticed in terms of economic status.
The gap between the Congress and its rivals is much wider when one looks at the vote preferences of the economically less privileged. This gap ,especially between the Congress and the BJP, narrows when we come to the more affluent segments of society. Interestingly the JDS tends to enjoy more support among the well- to- do.
The social base of the different political parties is also indicative of the nature and structure of the electoral competition. The BJP is ahead of the Congress among the upper castes and Lingayats. The Congress appears to have made little in-road into the Lingayat vote, which remains strongly consolidated behind the BJP as in the past.
The Congress does not appear to have gained any significant traction among those Lingayats who respond favourably to the move of the party to accord a minority religion status to them. The vote of the other dominant caste, the Vokkaligas, seems to be consolidating behind the JDS. Yet it must be recorded that the Congress appears to draw more support from this social group when compared to the BJP.
The two major religious minorities – the Muslims and Christians are seen to favour the Congress. This is a critical factor as the race seems to be evenly balanced between the Congress and the BJP when it comes to the Hindu vote.
The Dalit and tribal vote too has seen a consolidation behind the Congress though a quarter of this vote is with the BJP. Among the Dalit groups, the Congress seems to be doing much better among the Holeyas and Adi Dravidas, while the BJP seems to have some support among the Madigas. There is an important pattern in the non -dominant OBC vote.
If one were to bring together all these castes, the Congress appears to be ahead of the BJP and the AHINDA slogan still evokes a favourable response for it. However, if one were to separate the Kururba vote, it is strongly with the Congress. On the other hand the non -Kuruba, non- dominant OBCs, seem to favour the BJP more. The perception that the Congress has given greater weightage to the Kurubas among the non- dominant OBCs could have contributed to this trend.
The Congress appears to have caught up with the BJP among social media users as the survey indicates they are veering closer to the ruling party in the state than the principal opposition.
Thus, the real battle of Karnataka and the indication of the electoral trends are in the distinct geographical regions and the support that each party enjoys among different social groups.
(Dr Veena Devi is Karnataka State Coordinator for Lokniti Network and a Professor of Political Science at Bangalore University; Dr K C Nagesh is Karnataka State Supervisor for Lokniti Network and teaches Political Science at a Government Pre University College)
