Nanjangud: On Friday, some five lakh people gathered at Dakshin Kashi, the famed Shaivite temple at Nanjangud, where for the first time, a resurgent BJP, buoyed by PM Modi's election sweep of the north, is all set to give the Congress a run for its money, in two constituencies in what has always been a Congress stronghold in the south. The ballots will go into the boxes on Sunday. The results will be out on Tuesday.
Which way could it all go? Listen to this young man. “We supported Congress all these years as our Prasad Sir was there. Now we will work for the BJP since our leader has embraced the saffron party” said Santosh, a second year B.Com student from Badanavalu.
The “Prasad Sir”, he mentions, is the former face of the Congress and former minister V. Srinivasprasad, who resigned his party membership, “insulted” when he was dropped by CM Siddaramaiah from the council of ministers in October last year.
The CM, hamstrung by the lack of a giant to beat this Goliath, has picked Kalale Keshavamurthy from JD(S) who had lost against the same candidate by a narrow margin in 2013 assembly polls. Hurriedly inducted into the Congress and given a ticket, Kalale is up against his old foe, who is sporting his new saffron colours, with a vengeance.
The BJP, which has long dreamed of gaining a toehold in the south, where it has no base, neither in Mysuru rural or the entire Chamarajanagar district, cannot stop smiling. Prasad’s victory is integral to the BJP’s plans to edge out the Congress and the JD(S) here.
For Prasad, the Dalit vote is virtually in the bag. The question is, whether the sizeable Lingayats, Brahmins and Jains voters who are traditionally inclined to the BJP but have never had a serious BJP candidate to vote for, will vote for a Dalit and a former Congressman. Many of these non-Dalits have supported Prasad in the past. Around 160 to 170 villages come under this constituency and every village has a mix of Dalits and Lingayats as well as Nayaks and Upparas.
Ganesh, a Uppara from Hemmaragala village, reflected the change when he said, “this time Prasad or no Prasad our community has decided to vote for the BJP because of Prime Minister Narendra Modi who is trying to develop India.”
Krishnamurthy of Dodda Kavalande village was not so supportive. He said Mr Prasad had not done anything for the development of the taluk. “He is non-approachable and hardly visits the constituency. Mr Prasad is responsible for causing the by election only because his self-respect had been hurt. If that is so, he should have stayed low key and contested from any party of his choice next year. This would have saved money and time at a time when the severe drought has hit the state. Prasad had worked as MP, union minister, MLA and minister in his 40 years of political life, let others also get the chance to serve the people.”
Says Kumar who regularly supplies condiments to stalls and bakeries. “The fight between Congress and BJP may be intense in Nanjangud town. But in the rural areas, the mood is surprisingly pro-BJP largely because of the Modi factor.”
A bachelor, a man of simple tastes, and a runner up to Srinvasprasad in one poll after another, this time, Kalale is hoping to turn the tables on an old rival. Will he be able to? Is his timing - joining a party that could face anti-incumbency - off again?
The Congress is trying to rake up the Badanavalu incident of the early 1990s, when Dalits were lynched by upper caste Lingayats to drive a wedge into the BJP's consolidation of the Dalit-Lingayat vote, questioning how Prasad, despite his pro-Dalit stand could join hands with a communal party.
The BJP is banking on Prasad for several reasons. His status as a mass leader with a large following not only in Mysuru but also in Chamarajanagar could be used to woo Dalit voters who still consider the BJP a ‘Brahmins party’. Through Mr Prasad, the BJP wants to make a grand entry into 16 assembly constituencies in two districts of Old Mysore and Chamarajnagar.
For Prasad, a victory will send a strong message to the Congress that he is still a force to reckon with in both districts. Conversely, his defeat could not only upend the grand roadmap of a BJP, riding on his back to win the south, it could also send him into political exile. He has already said that this will be his last election.
None of the other newly inducted Dalit leaders, like K Shivanna and M. Shivanna match the charisma of Prasad. The Congress game plan is to ensure there is no repeat of Hebbal. For the CM, who is chief campaigner, publicist, and proxy candidate, he and Kalale will draw on his and the CM’s long time JD(S) network to bring in the Vokkaliga vote. Come April 11, it will be interesting to see what the voter gives credence to.
Total voters: 2.03 lakh
Dalits: 58,000
Lingayats: 54,000
Others
Nayaks: 18,000
Upparas: 15,000
Muslims: 8,000
Vokkaligas: 6,000
Brahmins: 7,800
Jains: 2,500
