BENGALURU: Saturday's rapid turn of events in Karnataka's politicalscape has thrown up eight possible scenarios likely to evolve over the next couple of days with some dictated by permutations and combinations of political parties, and others influenced by power politics of BJP's national leaders.
1: CONG TAKES OVER GOVT
With many of loyalists of CLP leader, Siddaramaiah, quitting their membership of the Assembly, it is evident that the Kuruba strongman has engineered this crisis for the 13 month-old coalition government in order to take over from Mr H D Kumaraswamy. In this scenario, Mr Kumaraswamy has to make way for Mr Siddaramaiah ahead of a meeting of the Congress Legislature Party (CLP) with top leaders eliciting the opinion of individual MLAs on another term for the latter at the helm. In case JD (S) leaders agree to such a role reversal (Congress-led coalition), PWD minister H D Revanna would emerge as the JD (S)'s choice for the DyCM's post. The snag, however, would be opposition from JD (S) patriarch H D Deve Gowda and deputy chief minister Dr G Parameshwar who love to hate Mr Siddaramaiah.
2: KHARGE FOR CHEIF MINISTER
Sources in JD (S) said that both Mr Deve Gowda and Mr Kumaraswamy loathe the prospect of Mr Siddaramaiah occupying the CM's gaddi for the second time and therefore would do their best to back the candidature of veteran Congress leader M Mallikarjun Kharge. In case central leaders accede to Mr Gowda and his son's suggestion, Mr Kharge, who missed three opportunities of making it to the top post, would take over as Chief Minister. In this scenario, the challenge, however, would spring from within the Congress with Dr Parameshwara, also a Dalit leader, likely to throw his ring in the hat. Top Congress leaders would face the dilemma of an Old Guard Mr Kharge versus a younger leader like Dr Parameshwar. Besides, Mr Siddaramaiah could resort to the number game as he holds sway over the legislature party, and turn the score in his favour.
3: JD(S) SUPPORT FROM OUTSIDE
In order to keep the Congress on tenterhooks, the JD (S) could propose mere external support rather than join another coalition experiment. This, however, seems bleak with sources in JD (S) pointing out that party leaders would continue to be part of the government.
4: DISSOLUTION of ASSEMBLY
A meeting of the cabinet is scheduled for Tuesday where a resolution to recommend dissolution of the Assembly could be adopted by the ministers and forwarded to Governor Vajubhai Vala. Such a scenario, too, seems bleak as none of the parties is ready for mid-term polls. Besides, Mr Vala could reject the cabinet's decision to dissolve the Assembly,
5: SUSPENDED ANIMATION
Governor Mr Vala could hold the House under suspended animation till any party offers to the new government with the support of requisite number of legislators.
6: BSY STAKES CLAIM
In all, 12 MLAs of the Congress and Janata Dal (Secular) tendered their resignations on Saturday, and in case three more legislators follow suit, the combined strength of the Congress-Janata Dal (Secular) coalition and independents, would dip to 104, less than the BJP's strength of 105 in the 224-member Assembly.
Under such circumstances, Mr B S Yeddyurappa, leader of the BJP legislature party, could stake claim to form the government, provided Mr Kumaraswamy fails the test of strength in the Assembly.
7: CM CONVINCES REBELS
Sources close to Mr Kumaraswamy are confident that the Chief Minister would convince at least six to eight MLAs, albeit with lucrative offers, to withdraw their resignation letters and continue in office.
8: BERTHS FOR REBELS
A remote possibility for survival of the coalition: adoption of 'Kamaraj plan' to make possible the exit of all 15 Congress ministers, and make room for disgruntled legislators in the cabinet.