Chennai: With the BJP just short of about 20,000 electoral college votes in the Presidential elections, the AIADMK (Amma) with a total of 47,844 votes holds the key for the poll outcome, in case of a tight race for the post.
Chief Minister Edappadi K. Palanisami, ever since he took over the reins of power, has desisted from criticising the Union government and reportedly asked his ministers not to speak against the centre in public. However, the big question is if the ruling party which has several pressure groups, besides the supporters of party general secretary V.K. Sasikala and deputy general secretary T.T.V. Dhinakaran will vote as a single block or show their divisions during the Presidential elections.
Splitting of votes in such an election is unlikely to trigger the state government's fall and loss of MLA posts. Besides, the violation of party whip is also unlikely to have an impact since the party could not expel its legislators at the present circumstances. The party had not shown any inclination to disqualify the 11 MLAs who voted against the Palanisami government during the confidence motion two months ago.
The AIADMK (Amma) faction has 123 MLAs (including the Speaker) whose tally in the electoral college comes around 21,648 votes. The party also has 37 MPs in both Houses and its value comes to 26,196 votes. The total value of votes at the hands of the MLAs and MPs of the state's ruling party, which is pulling in different directions, will be 47,844 votes.
The AIADMK (PTA) headed by former Chief Minister O. Panneerselvam has 12 MPs and another MP Sasikala Pushpa is acting alone. The total value of votes with the Panneerselvam-headed group is 10,598, which is just about one-fifth of the strength of the ruling faction.
But, the cohesiveness of AIADMK (Amma) is feeble, with divisions surfacing along community and regional lines. More than a dozen Dalit MLAs are said to be acting together, while another group with about the same strength is active in the Kongu region. Besides, a sizeable chunk of MLAs are loyal to the jailed leader Dhinakaran, while the legislators in the delta region have demonstrated that they are the supporters of Sasikala's family, even if they are not with Dhinakaran.
The voting in the Presidential election is likely to give a clear indication of Palanisami's hold in the party. The number of legislators who get along with the Chief Minister's diktat and those who are likely to go according to their own preferences will be known in the polls.
