Chennai: With the Election Commission (EC) sounding the poll bugle, Tamil Nadu appears to be heading for a multi-cornered contest after two decades with the AIADMK, DMK, People’s Welfare Alliance and PMK gearing up for the race, while BJP and DMDK remain undecided.
The decision of DMDK and BJP is unlikely to reduce the number of fronts, but may add another if they decide to stitch one more alliance or want to go it alone.
In 2001 and 2011, it was a straight contest between AIADMK and DMK fronts, but the entry of actor Vijayakanth’s DMDK forced a triangular contest in 2006.
Two decades ago, in 1996, the state witnessed a multi-cornered contest with five fronts - DMK-TMC combine, AIADMK-Congress alliance, MDMK-CPM front, besides the PMK and BJP. Though, there were five fronts in 1996, the contest was effectively reduced to a straight contest by the DMK which aligned with TMC and exploited the support of super star Rajinikanth.
The Rajini wave and TMC alliance ensured that none of the fronts other than the DMK and AIADMK reached the double digit vote share. The DMK is desperate not to repeat its 1996 strategy and avoid an effective multi-cornered fight by winning Vijayakanth’s DMDK to its side and decimating the other fronts like the People’s Welfare Alliance and PMK. The DMK’s desperation stems from past poll battles when parties have captured power by receiving just over 30 per cent votes in effective multi-cornered races.
In 1977, the AIADMK founded by the charismatic MGR faced its first Assembly elections. The DMK, Janata party and Congress made the contest four-cornered, resulting in MGR capturing power with 130 seats with just a vote bank of about 30 per cent.
Similarly, after the demise of MGR, when his party split into two factions under J. Jayalalithaa and MGR’s wife V.N. Janaki, Congress too wanted to test its strength and went on its own. The fight was four-cornered again and DMK which was in the wilderness for over a decade regained power with just 33.18 per cent.
In the last three Assembly electoral battles, the AIADMK has not gone below the 30 per cent mark and it swept the 2014 Parliamentary elections with 44 per cent vote share. Even, if the AIADMK is hit by a downswing of over 10 per cent votes, the ruling party’s vote share is unlikely to go below the 30 per cent mark.
Political analyst Govi. Lenin said the DMK desperately needs an alliance even if there is an anti-incumbency wave against AIADMK. “The DMK has not improved its vote share in the last five years and is under constant attack from all parties on several issues. It is under compulsion to show itself as a formidable alliance to win people’s trust. Otherwise, the PWA and PMK could split the votes against AIADMK, since they are also targeting the DMK”.
