As the dust around the Lok Sabha elections settles, analysis of why the winners won so handsomely and the losers were routed are becoming the focus of attention. Karnataka was the focus of a lot of national attention. This state was an important gateway to South India for the BJP. This was also the only state south of the Vindhyas where they hoped to win big, exclusively on their own strength. They won an impressive victory in the State, staving off what appeared to be a strong challenge from the Congress-JDS alliance. While a lot has been said and written of what explains the BJP victory, equally important is what contributed to the rout of the Congees-JD(S) alliance?
The results of last year’s Assembly Elections saw the Congress and the JD(S) come together to form an alliance in order to keep the BJP out if power. In order to remain in power in the state, they realised that they needed to remain together in the Lok Sabha poll in order to offer any meaningful challenge to the BJP. Many spoke of the electoral arithmetic which favoured such an alliance. By merely bringing together the vote share of the two in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls and Assembly polls, many commentators were convinced that the ‘math’ favoured the alliance against the BJP. It is clear this simple arithmetic went horribly wrong. It also goes to prove that in politics 2+2 is not necessarily always 4. What led to the math going wrong?
This election in Karnataka has proved that arithmetic can be trumped by simple logic, caste calculus, past history, political management and of course ground level chemistry. Let’s look at each of these factors.
While arithmetic was on the alliance's side the logic was clearly not. What was the logic that held the alliance together. It was an anti-BJP glue. That glue helped them to come to power it was totally insufficient to convince the voters to vote in their favour. This was an alliance which had differences cropping up on every single day after assuming power in the state. This was an alliance whose leaders whose leaders aired their differences in public and plotted against each other in private. This was an alliance where the mistrust and suspicion had deep roots. Many leaders in the Congress had been in the JDS and quite a few JDS stalwarts were former Congressman. Could the past be simply wished away with the formation of an alliance? As the Lok Sabha elections approached, rather than honing their joint election strategy they were focussed on who gets which seat to contest. How do we win a seat did not seem to matter! The simple logic of going to people with a clear strategy to win was patently absent. The a
lliance hoped that its criticism of the central government and its leadership would suffice to win. The results prove that a exclusively and excessively negative agenda cannot produce a positive result.
Now coming to the caste calculus.
For quite some time in Karnataka, the Lingayat vote had been with the BJP while the other dominant caste vote (of the Vokkaliga) had been split among the major players. The Congress under Siddaramaiah had managed to bring the non-dominant vote to their side and retain much of the Dalit and minority vote. This time around the BJP further consolidated it’s Lingayat vote.
With a split in the non dominant OBC vote between the alliance and the BJP, the BJP managed to sweep Northern Karnataka. The Old Mysore region had seen a traditional contest between the Congress and the JDS. With the two parties fighting together, they opened up the space for the BJP to emerge. Given the poor chemistry between the alliance on the ground, a segment of the Vokkaliga vote moved to the BJP as did the non dominant OBCs and the Dalits. The Upper Caste was firmly with the BJP. The only social group that appeared to back the alliance were the minorities and that was not enough to create the needed caste matrix to ensure victory.
When an alliance is formed and seeks electoral support, the voter keeps in mind the past history of the alliance partners. Less than a decade and a half ago, the Congress and JDS formed an alliance in Karnataka to come to power. The alliance did not survive for long on account of its internal contradictions.
The same was repeated last year with the alliance forming the government. The continuous squabbles, the threat of defections and resignations, the open expression by legislators of their differences desire to become ministers did not do credit to the alliance. The public saw them as political opportunists who were making best of the situation. To expect the voters to repose trust in them would be a gross underestimation of the sagacity of the Karnataka voter.
Further, the alliances lack of skills of political management were woefully on display. This mismanagement could be seen at two levels. First, the power struggles within both the Congress and the JDS. Ever since the Assembly elections last year, the Congress has been a badly factionalised outfit with leaders trying to assert their presence and importance. The internal power struggle within the party resulted in the campaign of the party seeing this factional feud out in the open. There was no common strategy to win but each factional leader was busy defending his small turf. In the process, they were all collectively routed. The JDS had its own internal convulsions. One thirds of its seats went to the grandfather and the grandsons. This was also blatantly defended by the party leadership saying that this was the party workers choice. The voters have given their verdict on that choice!
Finally the much talked of chemistry of an alliance. The chemistry among Congress and JDS workers at the constituency level was clearly missing. While this was publically visible in Mandya and Mysore, it clearly was a factor for the alliance's defeat across the state. The blame game has already begun with prominent losers from the alliance blaming the partner for not making their efforts. Mandya was that rare seat in India where the Independent was officially supported by the BJP and unofficially supported by the district unit of the Congress!
Victories are not merely about alliances. It is about capturing the voters imagination. This is where the BJP succeeded and the alliance failed.
— The writer is pro-Vice Chancellor, Jain University
