Thiruvananthapuram: The incessant showers witnessed during the last two days in the state seem just not strong or pervasive enough for Indian Meteorological Department to officially confirm the landing of southwest monsoon along the Kerala coast. Nonetheless, southwest monsoon is on the verge of touchdown. “Recent meteorological conditions indicate that conditions are favourable for onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala on May 30,” IMD said in its latest bulletin.
The state IMD director S. Sudevan conceded that the state was receiving copious showers that carried telltale signs of monsoon in the last two days but said that it was still to satisfy three conditions for it to be called southwest monsoon. One, the wind speed has to increase. “At the moment, the westerly has come up to Kanyakumari but it has not yet gathered speed all over Kerala, especially in the northern parts,” Mr Sudevan said.
Two, the rainfall has to be evenly spread. “At least 80 percent of the 14 rain gauge stations across the state should record rainfall for what we are witnessing now to be called southwest monsoon,” Mr Sudevan said. “There is not enough rainfall in the northern areas beyond Thrissur district,” he added. Three, the Outgoing Longwave Radiation (the energy radiating from the Earth as infrared radiation at low energy to space) should come down further. OLR has to be below 200 watts per metre square for IMD to declare the onset of southwest monsoon.
“For this, northern districts, too, should receive more rainfall,” the IMD director said. However, he said prevailing conditions indicate that the state is just a few hours from getting engulfed in the monsoon. Mr Sudevan said that the monsoon striking on time could bring a lot of cheer. Last year, the state suffered a double whammy. IN what could be called unprecedented, both the southwest and northeast monsoons failed. While the southwest was 34 percent deficient, the northeast was 65 percent deficient, pushing the state into the grip of drought.
