The Modi juggernaut was not merely stopped in its tracks, but literally overturned in the states of Kerala and Tamil Nadu, despite a propitious environment pan-India. What stands out is the Tamil Nadu results, where AIADMK, PMK and allies were also pulled down by the weight of their association with BJP. That is the stark reality. While the whole of India re elected Modi, TN rejected him resoundingly. Rather, expressed its 'hate' for Modi, to be brutally truthful.
Why? Was it a cultural construct from Periyar and Annadurai times? When the entire nation was captivated by the Hindutva magic, so much so, a controversial candidate in Pragya Thakur trumped a veteran in Digvijaya Singh by over 2.5 lakh votes, in Bhopal, the Hindu bashing in TN hardly mattered to the voters, who overwhelmingly rejected the Modi mania? Was it Modi specific and centric?
It would do a world of good for BJP, at the state and national level, to analyse the 'why' of this rejection. Modi himself may well introspect and Amit Shah who will not miss a trick is already on the job. As someone commented, "We had a WhatsApp election in TN. The viral memes and videos in circulation ridiculing and spreading hate against Modi were too obvious to miss". And it was not for the past 2/3 months during the campaign alone. It had been going on for 3 years now and if one wants to fix a date/time, it could be the jallikattu agitation, of 3 years ago.
The jallikattu agitation really broke out big, and captured the imagination of not only those in TN, but entire India was transfixed. Marina beach became the Tahir Square- the Egyptian equivalent. People from every walk of life joined in, and it became a casteless/classless agitation, with popular appeal. It was live and even as the Supreme Court proceedings were on, made a huge impact on the social imagination .OPS was the Chief Minister and he himself went over to meet Modi seeking a statutory solution. But Modi never spoke where his sympathies lay, though he acted to diffuse the agitation, supporting the cause.
The 'Tamilians' concluded that Modi was indifferent to their interests. His heart did not beat for anything Tamil because his party had no dividends to reap in this state. More importantly, the long held perception that BJP was a party of the upper class and 'North Indians' got reinforced. Modi made no effort to publicly intervene, though ultimately it was his dispensation which granted the benefit of Central Government approval for President Ramnath Govind to sign the consent, as the Constitution mandated. But this was totally lost sight of, in the events leading to the state legislation, to become law legalising jallikattu. Modi missed a trick and more, in spite of providing the solution to the imbroglio, which has now stood the test of time after the Supreme Court refused to grant interim stay of the legislation. What remained was the perception that Modi did not care.
And then we had another spectacle, for nearly 100 days, at Jantar Mantar, New Delhi, by farmers from TN. Tamilians associated themselves with this cause, even if it was weird at times. The grouse of the Tamil people was that the Prime Minister Narendara Modi did not so much as make one symbolic visit to the Jantar Mantar and promise to look into their demands. It was concluded that Modi did not care for he had no stake in Tamil or Tamil Nadu's interests. Modi missed a trick here too. If only he had cared to visit the farmers and met them in person and called them for a meeting to address their demands - he would have been feted in Tamil Nadu. Unfortunately, the demands of the farmers lost sheen in the sheer drama of the spectacle they indulged in for it was not a healthy one. And Modi chose not to recognise it as a serious agitation. And since he was trying to address the farmers' distress on All India basis, he possibly did not consider a TN specific demand any different. Whatever the justification, all that it required for Modi, was a visit to the site and a handshake, and a promise to look into the issues. Respect is all, the Tamilians expected, they say.
Forget not the Neet issue that impacts several families. And TN was in the thick of action because of the 69 per cent reservation, unique to us, and the
number of medical colleges, in place, run mostly by Dravidian politicians. It was a hot issue not only because it impacted the lives of ordinary folks - as little Anita who tragically committed suicide - but the financial health of political families in TN. No wonder the issue flared up on instigation, so much so that party manifestos proclaimed that they will give a good bye to Neet. What is unfortunately forgotten is that Neet was not Modi's baby. It was the Supreme Court's - spiked by the court itself in a dubious order once. And then 'resurrected with a vengeance' by the top court, as an academician put it.
Modi came to TN's rescue with an ordinance, which was trashed by the apex court, for no fault of his. He did not bring Neet. He could not undo it, even if he was willing. But Modi failed to express it in public. He was silent but it cost him his stature and inclination. The perception that BJP had no stake in TN and therefore Modi did not care,h ardened. And DMK and its allies brilliantly built on this 'perception and fanned the flames to keep the issue alive as anti Modi
narrative', as one commentator suggested.Add the killing of 13 innocents in Thoothukudi in the wake of Sterlite agitation. Modi was perceived to be cold and uncaring, since he did not sympathise with the victims, even while he tweeted his sympathies for those killed abroad. His failure to visit TN in the aftermath of Gaja cyclone, despite his sanctioning a huge financial aid, was perceived as disdain and indifference to Tamilians. More so, when he was seen to be publicly attending a celebrity wedding contemporaneously. Even his government's grant of licence to run Methane and/or hydrocarbon units or oil drilling, to provide employment opportunities, is perceived as being with no 'concern for the health of Tamilians'.
Modi and BJP allowed the feeling, emotion, perception to take root and grow. The state unit's feeble counter narrative fell flat, as EPS administration was portrayed as BJP B team. The state BJP miserably failed to sound Modi on the 'alternate facts' gone viral. To convince him on the 'need to dispel the impression gaining ground and impacting on the voters who are swayed by feelings alone in any democratic polity' - as Yuval Noah Harari, the Israeli Professor concludes in his 21 lessons in 21st century on the ' overwhelming role of feelings over reality'. Modi-Shah combine have a mountain to climb in TN, if they are serious about BJP's realistic chances for a breakthrough in TN. Are they game?
(Author is an advocate practising in the Madras high court)
