Cyclone Hamoon May hit Andhra coast Around Dasara
Private weather website Skymet said the Indian Seas, Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea, have become active basins for stormy activities
Visakhapatnam: Dasara festival may be marred by Cyclone Hamoon that might hit the Andhra Pradesh coast around Oct 24.
A low pressure area over Southwest and adjoining Southeast Bay of Bengal with the associated cyclonic circulation extending upto mid tropospheric levels persisted on Friday. It was likely to intensify further into a depression over West Central Bay of Bengal around Oct 23, IMD Amaravati said.
Private weather website Skymet said there were promising signs of this system developing into a cyclonic storm around Oct 24. Further, concrete assertions can be made, only after the low pressure turns into a depression. This storm, if developed, will be named Hamoon.
The website said both the Indian Seas, Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea, have become active basins for stormy activities. Both sides of the Indian coastline are likely to witness tropical storm, first of this post monsoon season. The Arabian Sea will take the lead to churn a cyclone as early as this weekend. Chances are growing for Bay of Bengal, as well, to follow the suit and host a storm by early next week.
Under the influence of a persisting cyclonic circulation followed by a low pressure area over southeast Arabian Sea, a depression has formed over west-central Arabian Sea. The depression is centered around 9°N and 61°E, about 1000km away from Somali coast, it said.
The system is having compact low-level cyclonic circulation surrounded by deep convective cloud clusters. The depression is in a favourable region for further rapid intensification, with warm sea surface temperature (30°-31°C), light to moderate vertical wind shear (10-15 Kts) and typical equator-ward outflow.
Depression is likely to intensify fast into a cyclonic storm, which will be named Tej, as proposed by India. The storm will move northwest, away from the Indian coastline, and head for the Yemen coast. Tej is expected to make landfall around late night on Oct 23 or early Oct 24.
Defying other predictions, GFS models continue to track the cyclone, dangerously close to the Yemen-Oman coast, and moving northeastward. In this case, the storm will enter the open waters of Northwest Arabian Sea again and head for the Indus Delta region of Pakistan. More clarity will evolve after the system intensifies to a cyclonic storm.
Simultaneous occurrences of tropical storms on either side of the Indian coastline may not be observed very often. But, the storms, when formed, will be separated by a large distance, in excess of 2,500km. Therefore, being far from the reach of each other, Tej and Hamoon will traverse their track, independently.
Also, development of storms in the Indian Seas, quite early in the season, leave sample chance to have a repeat, before close of this year, Skymet said.
