Kochi: Kerala might have to face another flood this year after the virus scare subsides, says Pradeep John, an independent weather forecaster based in Tamil Nadu who is known for his accuracy in weather forecasts.
According to Pradeep, known as the Tamil Nadu Weatherman, Kerala may receive over 2300 mm rainfall for the present year based on the past statistics.
In 2018, the state witnessed extreme rainfall of 2517 mm during the Southwest monsoon from June to September while the amount of rainfall in 2019 was 2310 mm. Both years recorded much higher rainfall than the normal average rate received during the southwest monsoon.
“Kerala during Southwest monsoon gets a whopping 2049 mm rainfall normally. Kerala had very fewer monsoon years this century. 2007 was one great year with 2786 mm rainfall. Then things went quiet till 2013 when Kerala got 2562 mm rainfall. The monsoon magic was disappearing with just two super monsoons in 18 years. There was a reducing trend seen, but then came 2018, Kerala got 2517 mm rainfall less than 2007 and 2013 but most of the rainfall in 2018 and 2019 fell in short period creating worst floods since 1961 and 1924. There was other close by massive rains too like in 1946 and 1947 followed by 1959 and 1961,” observed Pradeep John in his Facebook post.
“Kerala has only once in the last 150 years had hat-trick of great Southwest monsoon. It was way back in the 1920s. Will it be three times in a row of above-normal monsoon for Kerala?
Three years stand out as great flood events in the history of Kerala they are 1924, 1961 and 2018.
Hat-trick of massive Southwest rains in Kerala in the 1920s
1922 - 2318 mm
1923 - 2666 mm
1924 - 3115 mm
Present - Can Kerala record another 2300 mm event?
2018 - 2517 mm
2019 - 2310 mm
2020 - ?
However, the Tamil Nadu Weatherman has added a note to his prediction saying that the percentage of the chart is not comparable due to variable averages arrived from time to time.
“And in 2007 the chart has shown very less rainfall but Kerala got one of the heaviest rains in that year. The massive rains in Valprai belt in 2007 can’t be forgotten,” he added.
Pradeep John shot to fame with his accurate prediction of the 2015 massive floods which devastated Chennai.
He has also forecast many other extreme natural events like 2016 Vardah cyclone.
He is posting regular and accurate weather forecasts on his Facebook page and several lakhs of people follow his prediction keenly, though Pradeep is untrained in meteorology.