Cyclone warnings are issued to the state government in four stages in four different time periods well in advance. Advanced computational skills, numerical modelling and constant tracking-cum-perusal of satellite imageries of the low pressure system, characterized by cyclonic circulation, help locate symptoms. It is normally done 72 hours before a cyclone through which the formation of abnormality in the ocean is determined. It is regarded as pre-cyclone watch. The coastal population is alerted 48 hours in advance about adverse weather conditions. 24 hours before the cyclone strikes, an exact picture of its trajectory and intensification through satellite tracking is available.
So many precursors are also available for dissemination to the public for accelerating mitigation activities. The fourth stage is about the further study of cyclone and its path till it wanes off. After the tsunami of December 26, 2004, a tsunami warning system was established by the Union Government. The country was successful in predicting many natural disasters, including a few low-profile tsunamis. But this time, it was a total letdown. If state bureaucrats are to be believed there were no special alarming advisories rather than stereotyped bulletins.
Kerala State Disaster Management Authority also failed to educate the government on disaster preparedness. Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan said the warning was too late. The scientific community, which is vociferous in airing views through media in the event of calamities outside state, remains a mute spectator. A proper prediction in the event of a future tsunami-generated earthquake is under a cloud. People cannot be termed guilty if they mark certain scientific institutions as “white elephants”. Last year’s Tamilnadu cyclone was well diagnosed by its disaster group. Our system failed in accelerating mitigation and rescue operation. Scientific growth, technological advances and progress are not a matter of high-impact publications and theses. It helps only if the common man gets some share from such rarefied efforts. Natural disasters should be grouped and task forces set up without further delay.
(Author is a former project scientist with Union Ministry of Earth Sciences)
