India's Economy Likely To Grow At 7.5pc in 2025-26: SBI Report
The NSO report put gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2025-26 at 7.4 percent as compared to 6.5 per cent in the previous fiscal. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has also projected the growth rate at 7.3 per cent
New Delhi: India's economy is likely to grow at 7.5 per cent in 2025-26 with upward bias, marginally higher from the government’s estimate of 7.4 per cent, according to a report by State Bank of India.
The report came a day after the first advance estimates released by the National Statistics Office (NSO) on Wednesday. The NSO report put gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2025-26 at 7.4 percent as compared to 6.5 per cent in the previous fiscal. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has also projected the growth rate at 7.3 per cent.
The gross value added (GVA) growth is estimated at 7.3 per cent and nominal GDP expansion at 8 per cent. Historically, the difference between RBI’s estimate and NSO’s estimate is 20-30 basis points and hence the 7.4 per cent estimate is quite expected and reasonable, said the research report from SBI's economic research department.
“We, however, believe that GDP growth for FY26 would be around 7.5 per cent with upward bias. The second advance estimates, incorporating additional data and revisions, are scheduled to be released on February 27, 2026. So, all these numbers are expected to change with the base revision to 2022-23,” the report said.
On the fiscal deficit, the report also said that at the end of November 2025 it stood at Rs 9.8 lakh crore or 62.3 percent of the budget estimate. “We believe that even though the tax revenue is likely to be lower than that budgeted for FY26, non-tax revenue will be on the higher side thereby not impacting the overall receipts much," the report said, adding that total expenditure is also expected to be lower, leading to fiscal deficit of Rs 15.85 lakh crore compared to the budgeted Rs 15.69 lakh crore.
