Below-Normal Monsoon for India in 2026: Skymet Forecast
The Skymet report also highlighted uneven regional distribution of rainfall
The private weather forecasting agency Skymet Weather has predicted a below-normal southwest monsoon for 2026, projecting seasonal rainfall at 94% of the long-period average (LPA), with a margin of error of ±5%.
The LPA for the June–September monsoon season stands at 868.6 mm, placing the expected rainfall in the “below normal” range of 90–95% of LPA. The private forecaster had earlier, in January 2026, indicated a weaker monsoon and has now reaffirmed that outlook.
According to the report, evolving oceanic conditions are likely to play a key role in shaping this year’s monsoon. One of the key factors behind the subdued outlook is the possible re-emergence of El Niño conditions later in the season.
“El Niño is expected to strengthen through the latter half of the year, which could weaken rainfall and make the second half of the monsoon more erratic,” the report said.
The Skymet report also highlighted uneven regional distribution of rainfall. Central and western India, particularly rainfed agricultural zones, are expected to receive below-normal rainfall. Northern states such as Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan may also witness deficient precipitation, especially during August and September.
In contrast, eastern and northeastern regions are likely to fare better, with relatively improved rainfall compared to the rest of the country.
