Below normal rain may cut Telangana agriculture production by 5 per cent

Hyderabad: The state will receive rainfall slightly less than normal rainfall during the forthcoming monsoon. The Indian Meteorological Department has predicted that the state will get 732 mm between June and September, which is 97 per cent of the long period average (LPA) of 755 mm.

The second long-range monsoon forecast issued on Wednesday said the state can expect high quantum of rainfall in July as the forecast rainfall is 101 per cent of the normal, while it will rain less in August, at 94 per cent of the LPA. Below normal rainfall predicted could bring down agriculture production by 5 per cent.

The impact on state’s economy is expected to be minimal as the contribution of agriculture to the state’s gross domestic product is lower when compared with other sectors. Finance minister Etela Rajender said, “The services sector remains the major contributor to the GSDP. It contributes about 55 per cent to GSDP while agriculture stands at about 17 per cent.”

What concerns the government is that any negative impact on agriculture will affect employment and livelihood in rural areas where a major chunk of the population is dependent on agriculture.

Agriculture secretary C. Parthasarathi, said, “The agriculture output has declined by 4.5 per cent on an average whenever rainfall has been below normal. The same trend was witnessed five times in the past 15 years.”

2nd stage forecast for 2018

SW monsoon in the country from June to September is most likely to be normal (96% to 104% of long period average).

Rainfall is likely to be 97% of the LPA with a model error of ±4%.

Season rainfall is likely to be 100% of LPA over the northwest, 99% over central India, 95% over peninsula and 93% over NE with model error of ± 8%.

Monthly rainfall overall is likely to be 101% of LPA during July and 94% during August, both with a model error of ± 9%.