Bengaluru: The rise to an election is always time of hope and patriotic fervour, where promises are made and not always kept. Imran Khan taking office as Prime Minister in Pakistan has implications within that country as well as for its relations with other nations, whether friend or foe. Will things take a turn for the better? Or drastically for the worse? Farzana Shaikh, the author of Decoding Pakistan and an Associate Fellow at Chatham House, London, laid bare a web of debt, economic compulsions, the might of the military and also, religion, where every decision is likely to make its ripples across the world.
Ridden with debt, a "$12 billion hole in the balance of payments," as Farzana put it, Pakistan is unarguably in dire economic straits. Imran Khan, the new Prime Minister, whose rise to power involved hope, hope that the crucial decision to make the accounts of Pakistan's debt to China available to public scrutiny. However, the situation is severe enough to make another bailout request to the IMF plausible. "That will come with many constraints and it's likely, therefore, that Pakistan will turn instead to its friends."
Alyssa Ayres, Senior Fellow at Council for Foreign Relations, argues that the mood in the United States has grown increasingly hostile, the administration growing more firm in its stance to cut off financial assistance to Pakistan until that government takes action against extremism in Afghanistan. "They have voted to ensure that America will not pay Pakistan so that it can clear its debts with China," she said. With the United States being the largest contributor to the IMF, Pakistan's decisions could put a strain on its friendship with China.
This could be a reckless approach, says Neena Gopal, Resident Editor, Deccan Chronicle, Bengaluru, for "Pakistan has a lot of potential to make things difficult for the U.S. The Taliban, which is Pakistan, have taken over rural areas and borders, where they can destroy American and British camps."
Friendship just won't suffice for a bailout plan either, she adds, acknowledging the ideological affinities between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. "Yes, Saudi and other Gulf countries have stepped in to help but that's not going to be enough for the reforms Imran has in mind. If Pakistan receives $6 billion that means $3 billion has to be repaid within a year."
Meanwhile, all of this is likely to have a bearing on India, where the administration has taken a 'no talking till terrorism ends' stance. "Terrorism is never going to end," said Ms Neena Gopal, summing up the discussion. "The current government has demonised Pakistan like never before and that is not healthy."
