It is unlikely there will ever be a dull moment from now right up to the hustings and the day in May when the results of the Lok Sabha elections will be announced. In a recurring rerun of the Mahabharat yudh, we may see the ‘nattering nabobs of negativism’ take on the ‘anti-dynasts’ of the ruling party. The resurrection and adaptation of a speechwriter William Safire quote used by US Vice president Spiro Agnew is probably just the first major salvo in this fight to the finish.
The theme for the battle could be the irresistible force of a maha coalition against the immovable object of an entity ensconced for five years after the trend changing major vote of 2014 when tree decades of coalition dharmas were sent crashing to bring about a one-party rule. What the politicians say against each other may be interesting, but these will be just grist for the media mill more than a game changer in the vote.
The two-way battle that the mahagathbhandan imagined for a while may not materialise all over India, although it might be one on one in many north Indian states, except Uttar Pradesh. The coalition might sink its differences just about enough to agree to put all its eggs in one basket or the other to take on the BJP in most of the cow belt - MP, Bihar and Rajasthan, besides Maharashtra.
Where the gathbhandan forces may bicker most and yet agree on a CMP is in sharing the post-poll spoils if indeed the different regional forces are able to bring in sufficient numbers to add to the Congress, which will be competing with the BJP for the single largest party status. This is the basic scenario put together by poll watchers who are convinced of a close race for the single largest party, of course, with the early prediction that the BJP will be the frontrunner and Congress the challenger.
Where regional arithmetic becomes important would be the UP scenario where the SP-BSP alliance is likely to get a lion’s share of the 80 seats and West Bengal where Didi’s hold on the 42 seats would make her a very major player, indeed one with Prime Ministerial ambitions. Any State which can bring a majority of the close to 40 seats would be a major coalition player in any post-poll scenario. In a fractured mandate, every bit is going to count and this is a scenario that cannot be discounted.
The imaginary Vindhya line also becomes a kind of divide with the South likely to look completely different from the national scene with the exception of Karnataka where it will be virtually BJP-Congress (plus JDS) head to head. The number of ‘other’ players would make the south battles as fascinating, with post-poll alliances far more likely to solidify in the push for power more than pre-poll arrangements. The exception would be Tamil Nadu where the Congress has a loyal ally in the DMK.
Curiously, Tamil Nadu will be in a category of its own with pre-poll alliances more the norm than the exception. This may be sneered at as a marriage of convenience but there are solid grounds for the AIADMK to hitch up with the national BJP in defiance of the 2014 strategy in which Jayalalithaa stubbornly went on her own and proved how right she was by virtually sweeping the poll with 37 of 39 seats. Such a strong performance is unlikely now even as the 2004 Jaya debacle of zero seats also looking equally unlikely.
The ruling AIADMK has stated its determination to find allies and has formed a committee to decide on this. Although every combination has been tried in different polls, there aren’t any major votebank parties in the State save for the two Dravidian majors. Of course, the breakaway ruling party wing of AMMK could be a game changer if it creates a three-way race in all constituencies. On the face of it, a three-way battle may strengthen DMK hands as it was the loser by a sliver in terms of vote share in the two-way 2016 Assembly polls.
It appears highly unlikely that the Rajinikanth factor will come into play in the LS polls. It is highly improbable that the Superstar would have a political machinery in place to contest 40 (39 TN plus one Puducherry) seats in under four months’ time. It would seem he may be willing to face a State poll with a fledgling party rather than the national one. What effect the Kamal factor will have and how much of a vote splitter that will prove in a potentially four-way battle - AIADMK+, DMK+, AMMK and MNM - remains to be seen.
The BJP’s southern push in the wake of early surveys and reports placing it at a disadvantage in the north vis a vis the 2014 performance appears to be a late starter. It will be out on its own in all southern States except Tamil Nadu where it might have an ally of convenience rather than conviction in the ruling AIADMK.
The PM visit and the resultant optics might put the focus temporarily on the BJP in Tamil Nadu. But, in the Dravidian heartland, the BJP, seen essentially as a Noth Indian party, will at best be a minor player.
