Tamil Nadu will be tested again, perhaps not so much to find out who gets the popular vote as to who can bribe the people in the most devious manner possible without the officials finding out. The bribing of voters has become a fine art in a State that used to think of itself as the Dravidian heartland in which the voters alternated between the giants once every five years and did so not for money. The voters used to switch sides to show their anger at ruling parties not doing enough to satisfy their everyday needs between elections.
The parties used to vie with each other to lay out welfare schemes to attract the voters. Soon enough it descended to handing out freebies, a free-for-all field in which anything could be promised and given, from stoves to mixies and grinders, fans. At least there was some logic to making the woman’s lot in the kitchen somewhat easier and they represent about half the electorate. When the money started flowing in what is commonly as the Thirumangalam Formula, things began going south and fast.
Today, a by-poll means a few thousand rupees per voter and a shrewd voter could take from more than one party provided he could take the pressures of post-poll queries or threats from the losing party. The people have become so cynical as to justify the bribe taking as an entitlement once every few years because they don’t get to see their MLAs until the next poll comes along. And now that another poll is here in RK Nagar, the voter will look forward to another helping of the notes, ironically with the Mahatma’s face on each of them.
The scenario just got a lot more complicated this time. The “Two Leaves” is back in the fray. How important would that be is a question to which the answer will be known only after the result is out. There is talk of a four-way contest, but only three will be serious contenders in the capital of a Dravidian land. If there is split loyalty among traditional AIADMK voters, it will be to the benefit of the DMK. In fact, it doesn’t need a prescient pollster to tell you that the DMK will be favored to win if all the conditions are equal.
The larger question is whether the conditions can be equal when a by-poll to a single constituency is held. The party or candidate with the larger purse might have the advantage. The statistics that we will see put out by the supervisory agencies that will be tasked with keeping an eye on the poll will point to several crores of rupees and freebies including liquor having been seized in the run-up to December 21. Imagine if in a dry state like Gujarat they can recover 6.71 lakh liters of liquor, what quantities of Tasmac stuff will be distributed in RK Nagar.
The rampant cynicism over by-polls, which generally tend to favour the ruling party, could not possibly apply this time. This is the funniest poll in which, much like in the IPL where friends will be playing with international foes in the same franchise, former friends will be foes and vice versa. The irony of the once official candidate of a united AIADMK being the principal rebel now even as the party symbol has been restored to the ruling group after a protracted battle before the ECI is inescapable. It won’t be the traditional battle between the Two Leaves and the Rising Sun though.
Opposition parties that crib about the announcement of the by-poll would do well to remember that the poll process is back and in place after all. It should least matter that the poll date was made public just after the symbol war was settled. At least, the fight is now on level terms for the ruling group that had a right to claim the symbol as it had the clear majority on numbers in legislators and among the party’s general council. Any rump faction would naturally have to fight on the symbols available with the EC.
Various divisions of the once united party of Jayalalithaa will be in the fray thus making it even more interesting. The DMK would probably profit from any split in the voting as it lost the 2016 assembly elections by very narrow margins in many seats. The smallest swing may see the party rebound. Also, even a single seat might matter as the Tamil Nadu version of controlled assembly democracy has to move forward at some time and call the assembly to order within six months of the last session. Fun and games are in store in January when the assembly will meet and that would be post-RK Nagar as well.
