Kochi: The fear of big El Nino conditions over the Pacific Ocean subsidising to a large extent may help in better monsoon rains in July and the second half of the south-west monsoon season.
The big El Nino fear is over, but weak El Nino in a neutral state is likely to prevail throughout the rainy season, said a climate scientist in Kochi who declined to reveal his identity.
The overall deficit in rainfall in Kerala in June, the first month of the south-west monsoon season, as on Wednesday is 35 per cent compared with the normal long term average.
As against the normal long term average of 549.9 mm the state so far has received only 355 mm rains. Wayanad district is topping with 55 per cent deficit while Idukki is close behind with 48 per cent deficit from long term normal rains.
The deficit at the national is estimated to be in the range of 36 per cent. Apart from weak El Nino policymakers and climate scientists across the country are hoping for better precipitation in coming days with other favourable factors such as the possibility of a low-pressure system in the Bay of Bengal. As this system gains strength and moves towards the mainland, it will help in advancing monsoon to central, western and northern regions of the country, an expert said.
A positive Indian Ocean Dipole, expected in the second half of the monsoon, may also help in rains to gain traction in the coming days. Indian Ocean Dipole refers to sea surface temperature differences in the western and eastern poles of the Indian Ocean. The IMD has forecast light to moderate rains in most parts of the state for the next four days.
