ALAPPUZHA: With Chengannur bracing for the polling on Monday, the political fronts have been playing the communal card to ensure a victory. The situation has changed in the constituency since 2016 when LDF’s K.K. Ramachandran Nair defeated UDF’s P.C. Vishnunath. The LDF’s traditional vote base is the Ezhava-- SC/ST combine and a cross section of lower stream Nairs while the UDF enjoys the support of a large chunk of Christian and Nair voters.
If the BJP secures over 40,000 votes and the LDF retains its 42 percent vote share, it could shatter the UDF’s hopes. If the BJP’s vote share declines and the UDF woos back the Hindu votes it lost in 2016, the latter would gain. Either way, the communal undercurrents hold the key. The major Hindu communities, including the SNDP Yogam and the NSS, have kept their options open so as not to displease any front.
The NDA is struggling to retain its vote share of last time due to the absence of BDJS from the campaign scene. However, NDA candidate P.S. Sreedh-aran Pillai hopes that the front will improve its performance like in 2016 when it surprised everyone with 42, 682 votes compared to 6,000 in 2011. Though the NDA has proposed a slew of development activities in Chengannur, it remains to be seen whether BJP would be able to attract the traditional voters of the rival fronts.
According to the Election Commission, the number of voters in Chengannur this time is 1,99,340, including 5,039 new voters. Fifty percent of the voters are Nairs (24 percent) and Christian (26 percent). Traditionally, the majority of Nairs and Christians, especially the Orthodox Church, have supported the UDF candidate, giving an upper hand to the UDF in most of the elections previously. This time, 20 percent Ezhava votes and 13 percent SC/ST votes would be crucial for all fronts.
The LDF is looking for a crack in Christian votes, especially of the Orthodox Church, which has an upper hand in the constituency. The LDF has brought to its fold former Congress leader and three-time MLA Shobhana George hoping that she could make a swing among Orthodox Christians in favour of Mr Saji Cherian. Last time, she had contested as an independent and secured 3, 966 votes. Ms C.S. Sujatha, LDF candidate in 2011, secured 52,656 votes, and K.K. Ramachandran Nair got 52,880 votes in 2016. Both belonged to the Nair community and retained their 42 percent vote share.
The UDF vote share came down from 51.98 percent in 2011 (65, 156) to 30.89 percent in 2016 (44,897) when Mr P.C. Vishunath, a Nair, was the candidate. A BDJS source said the NDA had managed to get some traditional UDF and LDF votes last time. The LDF gained many minority votes which were traditionally with the UDF and retained its vote share on both the occasions. “The BJP also benefited as the BDJS campaigned actively for it. But this time, the BDJS is keeping off which will hurt the NDA candidate.
For example, the BJP had got 5,060 Ezhava votes from Chennithala panchayat last time. But this figure would come down by 2000 now. We can’t predict where these votes will go,” a source said. The UDF camp believes that the support extended by Kerala Congress (M) chairman K.M. Mani will boost its prospects. Though the Church has not declared its stand, the KCBC followers have been campaigning in the constituency against the government’s liquor policy.
