THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: The ruling CPM has expressed doubt about the BJP transferring votes to the UDF in at least eight constituencies including Kannur, Kasargod and Kollam in the Lok Sabha polls.
The CPM believes that the BJP had put up a strong fight in Thiruvananthapuram, Thrissur, Pathanamthitta and Palakkad, but in rest of the constituencies the Left suspects cross-voting. The left alleged the BJP's lackluster campaigning in some of the Assembly segments of Kannur, Vadakara, Kasargod and Kollam indicated the tacit understanding with the UDF. In these constituencies the LDF candidates were the common enemy of the UDF-BJP combine.
But despite cross-voting, the CPM is hopeful of wining many of these constituencies.
Political observers say the cross voting phenomena is yet to be ascertained conclusively in many constituencies. "We cannot read much about poll percentage in terms of winnability. I think the extremely high poll percentage in Malabar is an indication of minority consolidation. I wouldn't be surprised if most of the seats go to the UDF," said political analyst Joseph C Mathew.
He said the LDF was expected to garner seats in central and south Kerala . "I think LDF might win six to seven seats. BJP is unlikely to open account this time," he added.
Mr Mathew said Mr. Surendran was likely to go to third position in Pathanamthitta. "The BJP campaign in Pathanamthitta was focused mainly on Hindus. They openly said they required only Hindu votes as their candidate represented the Sabarimala struggle. The BJP calculation was that of the 62 per cent Hindus, about 60 per cent votes would come to them. In that case they should secure 3.5 lakh votes.
But even if BJP manages to get 50 per cent votes then it would come to around 3 lakh which will not be enough to win," he added.
Prof J. Prabhash, political expert, said both UDF and BJP might have gained from the Sabarimala issue. But BJP cannot claim to be the sole beneficiary.
On the other hand there was strong consolidation of minorities - Muslims and Christians compared to previous elections. It would be difficult to conclusively say which front gained because of this consolidation, he said.
Mr Prabhash said the LDF could win about 8 to 10 seats. The BJP, however, will find it difficult to open account.
CPM state secretariat to review polls today
The CPM state secretariat will meet at the AKG Centre on Friday to review the Lok Sabha poll outcome. The party had earlier directed all parliamentary constituency committees to prepare detailed reports on the voting pattern in each booth. The party polling agents have submitted the registers on which they had marked the positive votes during the polling.
The observers have been asked to list votes which are hundred per cent sure while tallying the party votes in each booth. This was to avoid big margin of error in evaluation.
The consolidated reports submitted by each parliamentary constituency would be examined by the secretariat at the meeting on Saturday. The party would also make a preliminary assessment on suspected transfer of votes from BJP to the UDF and vice versa....