Thiruvananthapuram: Kerala, one of the most abundant rainfall-receiving states of the country, is likely to witness an increase in temperature by 2-3 degrees Celsius by the end of this century due to climate change, according to a recent study.
Considering the past observed data, "consecutive droughts together with heat wave conditions could be ringing the bell of climate change for this otherwise heavenly state," the report by M G Manoj, Research Scientist, Advanced Centre for Atmospheric Radar Research, CUSAT, said.
"The projections of climate change for Kerala reveals an increase in temperature by 2-3 degrees Celsius by the end of this century," the report appeared in 'Kerala Climate', a publication of Institute of Climate Change Studies, said.
Intense lightning and thunder, gusty winds and rainfall, heat waves, droughts, polluted environment, pattern shifts in crops, reduced plant and animal productivity etc would be some of the consequences of the rising temperature, it said.
Frequency and duration of weak rainfall periods and drought condition is gradually increasing in Kerala, it said.
"Kerala, the most abundant rainfall-receiving state of the country, witnessed the most deficient rain this year," it said.
"The large-scale dynamics driven by warming in the Indian Ocean and changes in rainfall pattern has resulted in a deficient monsoon for Kerala this year," the report, titled 'Concerns on Changing Patterns of Climate over Kerala', said.
Due to increase in anthropogenic activities and emissions, global temperatures have shown a warming trend of 0.85 degree Celsius over the period 1880-2012, it said.
"This is a permanent factor in increasing the surface temperatures, even at our state too," it said, adding that "during the recent years, minimum temperatures (night-time) have increased more than daytime temperatures, suggesting the possible role of moisture and the greenhouse gases.
Last year saw the record of maximum temperature, Palakkad registering 41.9 degrees Celsius in the state. The maximum temperatures recorded in many parts of Kerala either crossed or reached near the critical level of 40 degrees Celsius, leading to unpleasant living conditions.
The report also said climatological analysis of rainfall data for the last 140 years show cyclic pattern with a significant declining trend in the south-west monsoon season for the last six decades.
"Rainfall in June and July shows a decreasing trend while that during winter and post-monsoon shows a slight increasing trend," the report said.
Quoting Indian Meteorological Department (2013) documents, it said the state is witnessing an average decline in South West monsoon rainfall by about 2.42 mm per year.
"Kerala also witnesses an increase in annual mean temperature by 0.01 degree Celsius/year. Most alarmingly, this trend is uniform in all seasons and at all locations of the state," it said.
The State Action Plan on Climate Change has identified four districts, Alappuzha, Palakkad, Idukki and Wayanad categorised as climate change 'hot spots' in Kerala due to high degree of vulnerability to natural hazards like flood and drought, and impact on biodiversity and human life, the report added.
