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LDF out of Sabari shadow

Whether Sabarimala could remain dormant and rebound in time for assembly elections in May 2021 is a moot question.

Thiruvananthapuram: The Sabarimala fizzle-out as an emotive majoritarian campaign issue, rebuff to blatant use of the caste card and a voter preference for good candidates, irrespective of their community clout, are the takeaways of the assembly by-poll results.

The Congress-led United Democratic Front tried a second serving of the Sabarimala menu in the bypoll campaign, hoping to pull off a win as resounding as in the May Lok Sabha elections when it got 19 out of the 20 seats. The two constituencies where Sabarimala could still be a favourite electoral theme were Vattiyoorkavu in Thiruvananthapuram and Konni in Pathanamthitta because of their sizeable Nair presence.

Nair Service Society general secretary G. Sukumaran Nair, who dumped his neutral “equidistance policy” in favour of a pro-UDF “right distance policy”, has been left squirming. The NSS door-to-door campaign for the UDF ended up being counterproductive as it triggered a backlash from the pro-backward Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana Yogam and other communities. Predictably, it helped raise the victory margins respectively of mayor V.K. Prakash in Vattiyoorkavu and K.U. Janeesh Kumar in Konni.

In a similar vein, SNDP general secretary Vellapally Natesan’s anti-UDF posturing helped the Congress’s Shanimol Usman clinch a win in the traditional CPM bastion of Aroor. The message is loud and clear, that at least for now, Sabarimala is over the hills and political parties might raise bread and butter issues or issues of development.

Not that the Kerala electoral scene has been suddenly sanitised of communal forces. But the graffito is about voters’ readiness to dump the conventional community voting pattern in favour of candidates with better policies and credentials.

Whether Sabarimala could remain dormant and rebound in time for assembly elections in May 2021 is a moot question. But voters generally shun clichés.

CMP state secretary C.P. John believes Sabarimala is latent and it is too early to predict how it will pan out. But he stoutly defends the NSS for standing by the Congress through thick and thin. “The NSS has been among the very few Hindu organisations to resist switching to the RSS camp when the vast majority had no compunctions in embracing saffron politics,” he said. The NSS would continue to back the UDF at a time when the BJP has begun to plateau, both in Kerala and outside, going by the latest election results, he said.

The victories of Mr Prasanth and Ms Shanimol Usman are two refreshing chapters in the state’s electoral politics as both have won in constituencies where their respective communities are in the minority. Both have won primarily on the strength of their candidatures. This has the potential to lend a positive twist to the state’s electoral politics as parties generally pick up candidates based on their community strength in each constituency. If parties have the gumption, it would breathe some fresh air into a communally sensitive electoral scene.

The onus is on the LDF to field more such candidates and let the UDF to follow on as it may take more time to untangle itself from deep ties with community organisations.

What stands in the way of the UDF politics is the Congress leadership void. Results of the latest by-elections plus the Pala by-election in September had come as a rude jolt to the UDF. It had five out of six but the tally has been reduced to three seats. Congress leaders were found wanting in their skills to manage community leaders on the eve of elections. They could have zeroed in on candidates to all by-poll seats, caused vacancies of sitting members successfully contesting Lok Sabha elections. Having lost valuable time, the Congress succumbed to outside pressures on the choice of candidates.

The absence of senior leader Oommen Chandy, who appears to have let opposition leader Ramesh Chennithala run the show, has been conspicuous. Given his presence at the high table of UDF politics for decades, he displayed unmatched skills in making the best out of bargains with community organisations. He is reputedly a man of compromises but also accommodative of concerns of such organisations without submitting to their brazen politics. It is in the best of interest of the state’s bipolar politics that the UDF soon finds a way out.

Left took on UDF, BJP aggressively this time

Though the UDF Sabarimala was included as a major component in the election campaign, the voting pattern and victory margin clearly suggest that it didn’t work. People to a great extent rejected the divisive agenda bringing relief to the LDF leadership which was wary of the campaign. The house to house campaign of the LDF particularly CPM, paid off as they could counter the anti-Left propaganda and connect with people directly.

Unlike parliamentary elections in May when the LDF adopted a defensive stand on the Sabari-mala issue, the ruling fr-ont carried out an aggre-ssive campaign against UDF and BJP for misleading people in the name of protecting the interests of believers.

The LDF exposed the BJP and Congress on the Sabarimala issue during the campaign. During the interaction with voters and in family meetings, the LDF apprised the people about the ma-nner in which the UDF and BJP had befooled the believers.

The Left leaders remin-ded the voters how the BJP during the Lok Sabha polls had claimed that if it came to power, it would frame a legislation to circumvent the Sup-reme Court verdict and protect the customs and traditions of the hill shr-ine. The LDF referred to the statements made by union law minister who stated that the Centre had no powers to go aga-inst Supreme Court verdict. The Left leadership had also exposed the Congress for misguiding the believers. The Congress failure to move a Bill in Parliament was highlighted during the campaign. The Ayyappa devotees told these parties deceit.

However, as a strategy the LDF steered clear of campaigning aggressively for women entry in Sabarimala. Instead it stuck to the stand that government had no other option but to discharge its constitutional responsibility. The LDF avoided direct confrontation with the RSS, BJP and Congress on Sabarimala and interacted directly with believers which proved effective.

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